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KBOS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 00:37 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
6%
ICON
5%
EPS
4%
AIFS
3%
HRES
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 4.0¢Risks 1.00u
VS
HRESNO 96.0¢Risks 24.00u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.00u · HRES −24.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.2% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.9% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.2% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.4% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.1% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.6% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.3% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.2% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.9% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 23.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 35.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.7% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.3% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.5% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 31.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 35.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.9% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.0% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.8% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.1% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.1% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.6% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.7% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-05 06:0010-12 06:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:000.5%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:000.5%————0.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:004.5%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:008.5%————10.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:0011.5%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:0018.2%————6.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0039.0%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:000.1%————5.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:006.6%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0017.5%————4.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0056.9%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0053.2%————6.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:003.5%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0032.0%————9.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:003.2%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:007.1%————6.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:001.8%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:000.9%————9.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0024.4%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0024.1%————14.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:003.5%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0026.6%————14.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0018.9%—0.0%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0017.3%————11.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:009.2%—10.7%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0023.7%————7.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0027.3%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:005.9%—33.5%——5.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0016.0%—19.3%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0016.8%—23.1%——6.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0021.2%—15.5%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0017.1%1.0%31.1%——9.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0019.9%—35.2%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0023.5%23.5%30.5%1.5%—11.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0014.8%—18.9%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0019.4%35.0%22.6%1.4%—2.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:007.5%—30.6%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:001.3%0.6%15.1%0.5%—0.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:001.4%—22.9%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.5%1.7%17.4%1.0%—0.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:004.9%0.0%29.0%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.3%0.5%0.5%1.4%—0.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.2%0.4%1.0%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%0.2%2.8%—0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.3%0.2%0.3%——0.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.3%0.1%0.2%1.4%—0.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.3%0.2%0.7%——0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.2%0.2%0.3%—0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.2%0.0%0.1%——0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.1%——0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%—0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00—0.1%0.0%———
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 26%65.2°F4.1°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
ICON5%61.8°F6.0°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble4%59.2°F6.8°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
NWS forecast3%62.0°F5.2°F2026-10-15 15:00Pending
AIFS Single3%62.2°F5.0°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
IFS HRES2%59.2°F5.8°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
National Blend<1%61.0°F4.4°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261020-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Boston runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗