KBOS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 00:37 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 4.0¢Risks 1.00u

HRESNO 96.0¢Risks 24.00u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.00u · HRES −24.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:02:25+00:00	36.8%	2.6%	48.5%	14.9%	17.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:37+00:00	36.8%	2.6%	48.5%	14.9%	17.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	36.8%	2.6%	48.5%	14.9%	17.4%
2026-10-13T10:19:49+00:00	36.8%	2.6%	48.5%	14.9%	17.4%
2026-10-13T11:05:04+00:00	36.8%	2.6%	48.5%	14.9%	17.4%
2026-10-13T11:50:31+00:00	36.8%	3.1%	54.0%	14.9%	17.4%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	36.8%	3.1%	54.0%	14.9%	17.4%
2026-10-13T13:20:52+00:00	36.8%	3.1%	54.0%	14.9%	17.4%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	41.5%	3.1%	54.0%	14.9%	17.4%
2026-10-13T14:56:01+00:00	41.5%	3.1%	54.0%	14.9%	17.4%
2026-10-13T15:41:10+00:00	41.5%	3.3%	54.0%	14.9%	17.4%
2026-10-13T16:27:00+00:00	41.5%	3.3%	54.0%	14.9%	17.4%
2026-10-13T17:12:07+00:00	41.5%	3.3%	59.5%	14.9%	17.4%
2026-10-13T17:57:15+00:00	41.5%	3.3%	59.5%	14.9%	17.4%
2026-10-13T18:42:20+00:00	41.5%	3.3%	59.5%	14.9%	17.4%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	41.5%	3.3%	59.5%	14.9%	17.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:31+00:00	47.2%	3.3%	59.5%	14.9%	51.6%
2026-10-13T20:57:40+00:00	47.2%	3.3%	59.5%	14.9%	51.6%
2026-10-13T21:42:46+00:00	47.2%	3.3%	59.5%	14.9%	51.6%
2026-10-13T22:28:21+00:00	47.2%	3.3%	59.5%	14.9%	51.6%
2026-10-13T23:13:31+00:00	47.2%	3.3%	67.1%	16.8%	51.6%
2026-10-13T23:58:41+00:00	47.2%	3.3%	67.1%	16.8%	51.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:50+00:00	47.2%	3.3%	67.1%	16.8%	51.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:06+00:00	34.8%	3.3%	67.1%	16.8%	51.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:15+00:00	34.8%	3.3%	67.1%	16.8%	51.6%
2026-10-14T02:59:22+00:00	34.8%	3.3%	67.1%	16.8%	51.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:23+00:00	34.8%	3.3%	67.1%	16.8%	51.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:42+00:00	34.8%	3.3%	67.1%	16.8%	51.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:49+00:00	34.8%	3.3%	67.1%	16.8%	51.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:56+00:00	34.8%	3.3%	67.1%	16.8%	51.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:03+00:00	34.8%	3.3%	67.1%	16.8%	51.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	40.3%	3.3%	67.1%	16.8%	58.4%
2026-10-14T08:16:32+00:00	40.3%	3.3%	67.1%	16.8%	58.4%
2026-10-14T09:01:42+00:00	40.3%	3.3%	67.1%	16.8%	58.4%
2026-10-14T09:46:50+00:00	40.3%	3.3%	67.1%	16.8%	58.4%
2026-10-14T10:31:59+00:00	40.3%	3.3%	67.1%	2.7%	58.4%
2026-10-14T11:20:29+00:00	40.3%	2.8%	23.6%	2.7%	58.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:09+00:00	40.3%	2.8%	23.6%	2.7%	58.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:17+00:00	40.3%	2.8%	23.6%	2.7%	58.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	20.9%	2.8%	23.6%	2.7%	58.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	21.8%	2.8%	23.9%	2.8%	58.4%
2026-10-14T15:11:56+00:00	21.8%	2.5%	23.9%	2.8%	58.4%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	21.8%	2.5%	23.9%	2.8%	58.4%
2026-10-14T16:43:00+00:00	21.8%	2.5%	23.9%	2.8%	58.4%
2026-10-14T17:28:08+00:00	21.8%	2.5%	8.5%	2.8%	58.4%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	21.8%	2.5%	8.5%	2.8%	58.4%
2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00	21.8%	2.5%	8.5%	2.8%	58.4%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	7.1%	2.5%	8.5%	3.3%	8.9%
2026-10-14T20:28:44+00:00	7.1%	2.5%	8.5%	3.3%	8.9%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	7.1%	2.5%	8.5%	3.3%	8.9%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	7.1%	2.5%	8.5%	3.3%	8.9%
2026-10-14T22:44:06+00:00	7.1%	2.5%	8.5%	3.3%	8.9%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	7.1%	2.5%	6.4%	3.3%	8.9%
2026-10-15T00:14:36+00:00	7.1%	2.5%	6.4%	3.3%	8.9%
2026-10-15T01:01:06+00:00	7.1%	2.5%	6.4%	3.3%	8.9%
2026-10-15T01:46:14+00:00	7.9%	2.5%	6.4%	3.3%	8.9%
2026-10-15T02:31:25+00:00	7.9%	2.5%	6.4%	3.3%	8.9%
2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00	7.9%	2.5%	6.4%	3.3%	8.9%
2026-10-15T04:01:40+00:00	7.9%	2.5%	6.4%	3.3%	8.9%
2026-10-15T04:47:47+00:00	7.9%	2.5%	6.4%	3.3%	8.9%
2026-10-15T05:33:14+00:00	7.9%	2.5%	20.2%	3.3%	8.9%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	7.9%	2.5%	20.2%	3.3%	8.9%
2026-10-15T07:03:32+00:00	7.9%	2.5%	20.2%	3.3%	8.9%
2026-10-15T07:48:46+00:00	3.8%	2.5%	20.2%	0.5%	8.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	3.8%	2.5%	20.2%	0.5%	8.9%
2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00	3.8%	2.5%	20.2%	0.5%	8.9%
2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00	3.8%	2.5%	20.2%	0.5%	8.9%
2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00	3.8%	2.5%	20.2%	0.5%	8.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:00	3.8%	3.3%	6.9%	0.5%	8.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:00+00:00	3.8%	3.3%	6.9%	0.5%	8.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:45+00:00	18.3%	3.3%	6.9%	0.5%	8.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	18.3%	3.3%	6.9%	0.5%	9.4%
2026-10-15T15:33:30+00:00	18.3%	3.5%	6.9%	0.5%	9.4%
2026-10-15T16:19:50+00:00	18.3%	3.5%	6.9%	0.5%	9.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:18+00:00	18.3%	3.5%	23.3%	0.5%	9.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:31+00:00	18.3%	3.5%	23.3%	0.5%	9.4%
2026-10-15T18:35:50+00:00	18.3%	3.5%	23.3%	0.5%	9.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:04+00:00	18.3%	3.5%	23.3%	0.5%	9.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	3.1%	3.5%	23.3%	1.7%	5.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	3.1%	3.5%	23.3%	1.7%	5.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	3.1%	3.5%	23.3%	1.7%	5.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	3.1%	3.5%	23.3%	1.7%	5.3%
2026-10-15T23:06:57+00:00	3.1%	3.5%	6.3%	1.7%	5.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:11+00:00	3.0%	3.5%	6.3%	1.7%	5.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	3.0%	3.5%	6.3%	1.7%	5.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	6%	65.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	5%	61.8°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	59.2°F	6.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	62.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	62.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	59.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	61.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261020-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Boston runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗