KBOS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 14 · 18:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

28%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 14.5¢Risks 14.45u

HRESNO 85.5¢Risks 85.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +85.55u · HRES −85.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	11.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	0.8%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	3.6%	—	2.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	6.6%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	1.6%	—	2.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	9.7%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	42.9%	—	4.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	36.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	3.9%	13.9%	—	1.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	11.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.6%	1.0%	2.1%	0.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	1.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.3%	0.2%	1.0%	0.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	0.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.4%	0.2%	2.2%	0.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.8%	0.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	0.0%	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	28%	65.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	64.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	63.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	61.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	<1%	56.5°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	61.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261021-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 14 · 10:31 UTC

Original listing: Boston runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗