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KBOS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 14 · 18:58 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
28%
AIFS
10%
WN2
4%
EPS
3%
HRES
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 14.5¢Risks 14.45u
VS
HRESNO 85.5¢Risks 85.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +85.55u · HRES −85.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 54.3% · 2026-10-14T10:31:59+00:00AIFS Single: 54.3% · 2026-10-14T11:20:29+00:00AIFS Single: 54.3% · 2026-10-14T12:06:09+00:00AIFS Single: 54.3% · 2026-10-14T12:51:17+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-14T15:11:56+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-14T16:43:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-14T17:28:08+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.2% · 2026-10-14T10:31:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.4% · 2026-10-14T11:20:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.4% · 2026-10-14T12:06:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.4% · 2026-10-14T12:51:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.4% · 2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.4% · 2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.2% · 2026-10-14T15:11:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.2% · 2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.2% · 2026-10-14T16:43:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.2% · 2026-10-14T17:28:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.2% · 2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.2% · 2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.0% · 2026-10-14T10:31:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.5% · 2026-10-14T11:20:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.5% · 2026-10-14T12:06:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.5% · 2026-10-14T12:51:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.5% · 2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.6% · 2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.6% · 2026-10-14T15:11:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.6% · 2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.6% · 2026-10-14T16:43:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.5% · 2026-10-14T17:28:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.5% · 2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.5% · 2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00IFS HRES: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T10:31:59+00:00IFS HRES: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T11:20:29+00:00IFS HRES: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T12:06:09+00:00IFS HRES: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T12:51:17+00:00IFS HRES: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00IFS HRES: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00IFS HRES: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T15:11:56+00:00IFS HRES: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00IFS HRES: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T16:43:00+00:00IFS HRES: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T17:28:08+00:00IFS HRES: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00IFS HRES: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00ICON: 27.6% · 2026-10-14T10:31:59+00:00ICON: 27.6% · 2026-10-14T11:20:29+00:00ICON: 27.6% · 2026-10-14T12:06:09+00:00ICON: 27.6% · 2026-10-14T12:51:17+00:00ICON: 27.6% · 2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00ICON: 28.0% · 2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00ICON: 28.0% · 2026-10-14T15:11:56+00:00ICON: 28.0% · 2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00ICON: 28.0% · 2026-10-14T16:43:00+00:00ICON: 28.0% · 2026-10-14T17:28:08+00:00ICON: 28.0% · 2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00ICON: 28.0% · 2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:0010-14 10:3110-14 15:1110-14 18:58
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T10:31:59+00:0054.3%4.2%24.0%0.9%27.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:29+00:0054.3%3.4%13.5%0.9%27.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:09+00:0054.3%3.4%13.5%0.9%27.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:17+00:0054.3%3.4%13.5%0.9%27.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:0010.0%3.4%13.5%0.9%27.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:0010.0%3.4%13.6%0.9%28.0%
2026-10-14T15:11:56+00:0010.0%3.2%13.6%0.9%28.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:0010.0%3.2%13.6%0.9%28.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:00+00:0010.0%3.2%13.6%0.9%28.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:08+00:0010.0%3.2%4.5%0.9%28.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:0010.0%3.2%4.5%0.9%28.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:0010.0%3.2%4.5%0.9%28.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON28%65.7°F9.9°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
AIFS Single10%64.3°F5.6°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 24%63.0°F5.0°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble3%61.1°F5.6°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
IFS HRES<1%56.5°F6.3°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
National Blend<1%61.0°F4.3°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261021-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 14 · 10:31 UTC

Original listing: Boston runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗