KBOS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

83%

80%

72%

56%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 73.5¢Risks 73.45u

EPSNO 26.5¢Risks 26.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +26.55u · EPS −26.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	73.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	16.3%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	62.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	88.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	72.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	98.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	94.6%	—	64.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	94.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	72.7%	—	42.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	58.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	22.8%	36.1%	—	40.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	32.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	57.7%	22.4%	23.5%	43.0%	36.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	27.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	59.4%	68.3%	18.4%	42.0%	34.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	23.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.2%	23.4%	22.8%	37.2%	33.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	23.5%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	27.4%	57.9%	66.3%	32.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	11.4%	67.4%	—	33.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	49.2%	81.0%	78.1%	37.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	34.2%	81.6%	—	52.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	50.9%	93.5%	89.1%	56.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.5%	42.9%	95.7%	—	57.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	74.9%	96.4%	90.2%	68.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	97.6%	76.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	66.1%	98.7%	91.0%	90.6%	81.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	55.0%	87.6%	70.9%	—	11.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	47.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	61.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	83%	61.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	80%	60.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	59.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	58.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	57.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	57.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261022-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 57°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗