KBOS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

83%

80%

72%

56%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 73.5¢Risks 73.45u

EPSNO 26.5¢Risks 26.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +26.55u · EPS −26.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T11:39:00+00:00	81.3%	69.4%	81.0%	43.7%	50.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:00	81.3%	53.4%	81.0%	43.7%	50.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:00+00:00	81.3%	53.4%	81.0%	43.7%	50.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:45+00:00	77.3%	53.4%	81.0%	43.7%	50.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	76.9%	53.4%	80.7%	43.8%	50.8%
2026-10-15T15:33:30+00:00	76.9%	56.8%	80.7%	43.8%	50.8%
2026-10-15T16:19:50+00:00	76.9%	56.8%	80.7%	43.8%	50.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:18+00:00	76.9%	56.8%	82.8%	43.8%	50.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:31+00:00	76.9%	56.8%	82.8%	43.8%	50.8%
2026-10-15T18:35:50+00:00	76.9%	56.8%	82.8%	43.8%	50.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:04+00:00	76.9%	56.8%	82.8%	43.8%	50.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	81.9%	56.8%	82.8%	40.7%	51.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	81.9%	56.8%	82.8%	40.7%	51.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	81.9%	56.8%	82.8%	40.7%	51.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	81.9%	56.8%	82.8%	40.7%	51.2%
2026-10-15T23:06:57+00:00	81.9%	56.8%	74.8%	40.7%	51.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:11+00:00	81.9%	56.8%	74.8%	40.8%	51.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	81.9%	56.8%	74.8%	40.8%	51.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:39+00:00	74.2%	56.8%	74.8%	40.8%	51.2%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	74.2%	56.8%	74.8%	40.8%	51.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:23+00:00	74.2%	56.8%	74.8%	40.8%	51.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	74.2%	56.8%	74.8%	40.8%	51.2%
2026-10-16T04:23:46+00:00	74.2%	56.8%	74.8%	40.8%	51.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	74.2%	56.8%	69.6%	40.8%	51.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:36+00:00	74.2%	56.8%	69.6%	40.8%	51.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	74.2%	56.8%	69.6%	40.8%	51.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	74.2%	56.8%	69.6%	40.8%	51.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:20+00:00	83.7%	56.8%	69.6%	40.8%	80.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	83.7%	56.8%	69.6%	40.8%	80.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:39+00:00	83.7%	56.8%	69.6%	40.8%	80.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:45+00:00	83.7%	56.8%	69.6%	40.8%	80.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:01+00:00	83.7%	27.4%	79.2%	40.8%	80.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:34+00:00	83.7%	27.4%	79.2%	40.8%	80.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:44+00:00	83.7%	27.4%	79.2%	40.8%	80.8%
2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00	83.7%	27.4%	79.2%	40.8%	80.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:36+00:00	69.8%	27.4%	79.2%	44.0%	81.2%
2026-10-17T04:40:48+00:00	48.5%	27.0%	84.8%	43.4%	49.4%
2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:00	48.5%	27.0%	78.6%	43.4%	49.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	48.5%	27.0%	78.6%	43.4%	49.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	48.5%	27.0%	78.6%	43.4%	49.4%
2026-10-17T07:43:53+00:00	50.8%	27.0%	78.6%	50.7%	48.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00	50.8%	27.0%	78.6%	50.7%	48.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:17+00:00	50.8%	27.0%	78.6%	50.7%	48.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	50.8%	27.0%	78.6%	50.7%	48.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00	50.8%	27.0%	78.6%	50.7%	48.0%
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00	50.8%	26.7%	85.2%	50.7%	48.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	50.8%	26.7%	85.2%	50.7%	48.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	50.8%	26.7%	85.2%	50.7%	48.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:39+00:00	69.3%	26.7%	85.2%	50.7%	48.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	69.3%	26.7%	85.2%	50.7%	48.0%
2026-10-18T04:13:33+00:00	62.7%	29.4%	82.9%	77.6%	66.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	62.7%	29.4%	91.7%	77.6%	66.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	62.7%	29.4%	91.7%	77.6%	66.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	62.7%	29.4%	91.7%	77.6%	66.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00	62.7%	29.4%	91.7%	77.6%	66.5%
2026-10-18T08:00:42+00:00	50.0%	29.4%	91.7%	83.6%	64.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	50.0%	29.4%	91.7%	83.6%	64.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:14+00:00	50.0%	29.4%	91.7%	83.6%	64.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00	50.0%	29.4%	91.7%	83.6%	64.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00	50.0%	29.4%	91.7%	83.6%	64.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:07+00:00	50.0%	56.6%	81.2%	83.6%	64.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	50.0%	56.6%	81.2%	83.6%	64.4%
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00	50.0%	56.6%	81.2%	83.6%	64.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00	55.2%	56.6%	81.2%	83.6%	64.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:22+00:00	55.2%	56.6%	81.2%	83.6%	64.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:22+00:00	55.2%	55.9%	81.2%	83.6%	64.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:42+00:00	55.2%	55.9%	81.2%	83.6%	64.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00	55.2%	55.9%	88.6%	83.6%	64.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:13+00:00	55.2%	55.9%	88.6%	83.6%	64.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:43+00:00	55.2%	55.9%	88.6%	83.6%	64.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00	55.2%	55.9%	88.6%	83.6%	64.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00	54.3%	55.9%	88.6%	80.5%	82.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:12+00:00	54.3%	55.9%	88.6%	80.5%	82.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:21+00:00	54.3%	55.9%	88.6%	80.5%	82.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:29+00:00	54.3%	55.9%	88.6%	80.5%	82.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	54.3%	55.9%	91.0%	80.5%	82.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	54.3%	55.9%	91.0%	80.5%	82.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:02+00:00	54.3%	55.9%	91.0%	80.5%	82.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:26+00:00	72.2%	55.9%	91.0%	80.5%	82.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	72.2%	55.9%	91.0%	80.5%	82.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:50+00:00	72.2%	55.9%	91.0%	80.5%	82.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	72.2%	55.9%	91.0%	80.5%	82.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	61.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	83%	61.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	80%	60.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	59.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	58.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	57.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	57.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261022-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 57°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗