KBOS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST88%Oct 19 · 12:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

80%

76%

66%

Consensus

88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 82.1¢Risks 82.10u

EPSNO 17.9¢Risks 17.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +17.90u · EPS −17.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	64.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	10.4%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	55.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	96.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	90.2%	—	51.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	89.7%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	60.9%	—	30.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	45.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	13.9%	24.4%	—	28.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	21.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	13.4%	14.1%	29.8%	24.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	16.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	44.9%	54.4%	10.3%	28.5%	22.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	13.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	13.4%	12.9%	23.9%	21.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	13.2%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	15.9%	42.1%	50.8%	19.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	5.3%	51.6%	—	20.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	33.0%	67.8%	63.9%	23.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	20.1%	68.2%	—	35.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	33.8%	85.9%	78.6%	38.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	26.4%	89.6%	—	39.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	58.2%	91.0%	79.7%	50.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	21.0%	93.3%	60.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	95.8%	80.3%	79.7%	66.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	74.3%	52.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	65.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	98%	66.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	62.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	76%	61.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	60.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	60.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	59.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261022-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 59°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗