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KBOS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST88%Oct 19 · 12:51 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
98%
ICON
98%
AIFS
80%
HRES
76%
EPS
66%
Consensus
88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 82.1¢Risks 82.10u
VS
EPSNO 17.9¢Risks 17.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +17.90u · EPS −17.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 56.1% · 2026-10-19T04:30:08+00:00AIFS Single: 56.1% · 2026-10-19T05:16:49+00:00AIFS Single: 56.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00AIFS Single: 56.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00AIFS Single: 80.0% · 2026-10-19T07:32:25+00:00AIFS Single: 80.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00AIFS Single: 80.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00AIFS Single: 80.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00AIFS Single: 80.0% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00AIFS Single: 80.0% · 2026-10-19T11:20:31+00:00AIFS Single: 80.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00AIFS Single: 80.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.2% · 2026-10-19T04:30:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.2% · 2026-10-19T05:16:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.2% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.2% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.2% · 2026-10-19T07:32:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.2% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.0% · 2026-10-19T11:20:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.9% · 2026-10-19T04:30:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.2% · 2026-10-19T05:16:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.2% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.2% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.2% · 2026-10-19T07:32:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.2% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.2% · 2026-10-19T11:20:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.2% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.2% · 2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00IFS HRES: 67.7% · 2026-10-19T04:30:08+00:00IFS HRES: 67.7% · 2026-10-19T05:16:49+00:00IFS HRES: 67.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00IFS HRES: 67.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00IFS HRES: 76.3% · 2026-10-19T07:32:25+00:00IFS HRES: 76.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00IFS HRES: 76.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00IFS HRES: 76.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS HRES: 76.3% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00IFS HRES: 76.3% · 2026-10-19T11:20:31+00:00IFS HRES: 76.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00IFS HRES: 76.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00ICON: 70.3% · 2026-10-19T04:30:08+00:00ICON: 70.3% · 2026-10-19T05:16:49+00:00ICON: 70.3% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00ICON: 70.3% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00ICON: 97.5% · 2026-10-19T07:32:25+00:00ICON: 97.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00ICON: 97.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00ICON: 97.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00ICON: 97.5% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00ICON: 97.5% · 2026-10-19T11:20:31+00:00ICON: 97.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00ICON: 97.5% · 2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:0010-19 04:3010-19 09:0410-19 12:51
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:30:08+00:0056.1%39.2%78.9%67.7%70.3%
2026-10-19T05:16:49+00:0056.1%39.2%85.2%67.7%70.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:0056.1%39.2%85.2%67.7%70.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:0056.1%39.2%85.2%67.7%70.3%
2026-10-19T07:32:25+00:0080.0%39.2%85.2%76.3%97.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:0080.0%39.2%85.2%76.3%97.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:0080.0%39.2%85.2%76.3%97.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:0080.0%39.2%85.2%76.3%97.5%
2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:0080.0%39.2%85.2%76.3%97.5%
2026-10-19T11:20:31+00:0080.0%66.0%98.2%76.3%97.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:0080.0%66.0%98.2%76.3%97.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:0080.0%66.0%98.2%76.3%97.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 298%65.6°F3.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON98%66.3°F4.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single80%62.1°F4.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES76%61.7°F4.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend67%60.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble66%60.1°F3.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast55%59.0°F3.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261022-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 59°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗