KBOS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 19 · 16:44 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

82%

67%

56%

40%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 60.9¢Risks 60.90u

HRESNO 39.1¢Risks 39.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.10u · HRES −39.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	86.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	88.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	89.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	90.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	82.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	83.4%	—	—	—	83.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	98.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	41.3%	—	79.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	79.0%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	99.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	14.9%	—	60.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	23.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	12.7%	—	65.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	84.9%	—	83.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	48.6%	67.0%	—	57.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	96.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	51.4%	35.6%	61.8%	31.1%	54.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	62.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	44.9%	50.0%	60.8%	75.7%	42.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	80.6%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	57.6%	89.0%	48.5%	33.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	65.9%	—	28.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	53.2%	74.5%	53.2%	29.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	43.5%	54.1%	—	25.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	43.4%	75.5%	44.2%	23.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	36.6%	43.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	42.2%	52.6%	37.9%	20.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	50.0%	37.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	40.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	82%	58.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	57.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	67%	56.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	55.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	56%	55.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	55.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	53.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261023-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 55°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗