KBOS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 19 · 16:44 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

82%

67%

56%

40%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 60.9¢Risks 60.90u

HRESNO 39.1¢Risks 39.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.10u · HRES −39.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T16:44:11+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T15:41:22+00:00	64.9%	60.7%	78.2%	37.1%	69.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:42+00:00	64.9%	60.7%	78.2%	37.1%	69.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00	64.9%	60.7%	80.3%	37.1%	69.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:13+00:00	64.9%	60.7%	80.3%	37.1%	69.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:43+00:00	64.9%	60.7%	80.3%	37.1%	69.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00	64.9%	60.7%	80.3%	37.1%	69.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00	53.2%	60.7%	80.3%	46.6%	62.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:12+00:00	53.2%	60.7%	80.3%	46.6%	62.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:21+00:00	53.2%	60.7%	80.3%	46.6%	62.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:29+00:00	53.2%	60.7%	80.3%	46.6%	62.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	53.2%	60.7%	77.5%	46.6%	62.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	53.2%	60.7%	77.5%	46.6%	62.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:02+00:00	53.2%	60.7%	77.5%	46.6%	62.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:26+00:00	46.8%	60.7%	77.5%	46.6%	62.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	46.8%	60.7%	77.5%	46.6%	62.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:50+00:00	46.8%	60.7%	77.5%	46.6%	62.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	46.8%	60.7%	77.5%	46.6%	62.2%
2026-10-19T04:30:10+00:00	46.8%	60.7%	77.5%	46.6%	62.2%
2026-10-19T05:16:49+00:00	46.8%	60.7%	76.0%	46.6%	62.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	46.8%	60.7%	76.0%	46.6%	62.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	46.8%	60.7%	76.0%	46.6%	62.2%
2026-10-19T07:32:25+00:00	61.1%	60.7%	76.0%	39.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00	61.1%	60.7%	76.0%	39.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00	61.1%	60.7%	76.0%	39.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	61.1%	60.7%	76.0%	39.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00	61.1%	60.7%	76.0%	39.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T11:20:31+00:00	61.1%	82.1%	81.9%	39.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00	61.1%	82.1%	81.9%	39.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00	61.1%	82.1%	81.9%	39.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00	66.8%	82.1%	81.9%	39.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00	66.9%	82.5%	82.0%	39.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T15:13:08+00:00	66.9%	82.1%	82.0%	39.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T15:59:04+00:00	66.9%	82.1%	82.0%	39.7%	56.5%
2026-10-19T16:44:11+00:00	66.9%	82.1%	82.0%	39.7%	56.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	82%	58.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	57.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	67%	56.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	55.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	56%	55.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	55.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	53.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261023-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 55°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗