KBOS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

54%

41%

30%

27%

14%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 33.7¢Risks 33.70u

EPSNO 66.3¢Risks 66.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +66.30u · EPS −66.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	65.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	45.4%	—	93.7%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	20.9%	—	58.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	58.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	96.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	—	4.8%	—	35.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	8.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	3.6%	—	40.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	61.8%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	58.1%	23.8%	40.6%	—	31.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	86.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	14.1%	34.3%	11.5%	28.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	34.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	23.2%	32.3%	48.5%	17.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	54.5%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	28.3%	67.7%	21.1%	11.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	35.5%	—	8.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	23.6%	44.4%	23.6%	9.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	16.3%	23.7%	—	7.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	15.7%	44.2%	16.2%	6.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	11.5%	15.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	14.1%	20.8%	11.8%	4.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	18.4%	11.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	54%	59.2°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	59.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	58.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	41%	57.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	55.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	27%	55.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	54.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261023-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 59°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗