KBOS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

54%

41%

30%

27%

14%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 33.7¢Risks 33.70u

EPSNO 66.3¢Risks 66.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +66.30u · EPS −66.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T14:19:36+00:00	71.7%	27.4%	91.5%	37.8%	51.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:05+00:00	71.7%	26.4%	91.5%	37.8%	51.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:52+00:00	71.7%	26.4%	91.5%	37.8%	51.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:01+00:00	71.7%	26.4%	91.5%	37.8%	51.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	71.7%	26.4%	86.0%	37.8%	51.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:34+00:00	71.7%	26.4%	86.0%	37.8%	51.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:40+00:00	71.7%	26.4%	86.0%	37.8%	51.6%
2026-10-16T19:36:47+00:00	52.8%	26.4%	86.0%	37.8%	44.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:20+00:00	52.8%	26.4%	86.0%	37.8%	44.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:43+00:00	52.8%	26.4%	86.0%	37.8%	44.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	52.8%	26.4%	86.0%	37.8%	44.0%
2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00	52.8%	26.4%	86.0%	26.8%	44.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:13+00:00	52.8%	26.4%	76.6%	26.8%	44.0%
2026-10-17T00:08:44+00:00	52.8%	26.4%	76.6%	26.8%	44.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	52.8%	26.4%	76.6%	26.8%	44.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:02+00:00	52.1%	26.4%	76.6%	26.8%	44.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:16+00:00	52.1%	26.4%	76.6%	26.8%	44.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	52.1%	26.4%	76.6%	26.8%	44.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:34+00:00	52.1%	26.4%	76.6%	26.8%	44.0%
2026-10-17T04:40:48+00:00	52.1%	26.4%	76.6%	26.8%	44.0%
2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:00	52.1%	26.4%	74.1%	26.8%	44.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	52.1%	26.4%	74.1%	26.8%	44.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	52.1%	26.4%	74.1%	26.8%	44.0%
2026-10-17T07:43:53+00:00	46.3%	26.4%	74.1%	22.9%	48.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00	46.3%	26.4%	74.1%	22.9%	48.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:17+00:00	46.3%	26.4%	74.1%	22.9%	48.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	46.3%	26.4%	74.1%	22.9%	48.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00	46.3%	26.4%	74.1%	22.9%	48.3%
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00	46.3%	12.0%	65.8%	22.9%	48.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	46.3%	12.0%	65.8%	22.9%	48.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	46.3%	12.0%	65.8%	22.9%	48.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:39+00:00	25.9%	12.0%	65.8%	23.2%	48.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	25.9%	12.1%	65.8%	22.9%	48.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:24+00:00	25.9%	13.5%	65.8%	22.9%	48.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:28+00:00	25.9%	13.5%	65.8%	22.9%	48.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:36+00:00	25.9%	13.5%	50.9%	22.9%	48.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	25.9%	13.5%	50.9%	22.9%	48.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:53+00:00	25.9%	13.5%	50.9%	22.9%	48.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:00+00:00	25.9%	13.5%	50.9%	22.9%	48.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:07+00:00	25.3%	13.5%	50.9%	29.8%	53.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:24+00:00	25.3%	13.5%	50.9%	29.8%	53.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:34+00:00	25.3%	13.5%	50.9%	29.8%	53.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:41+00:00	25.3%	13.5%	50.9%	29.8%	53.9%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	25.3%	13.5%	50.9%	29.8%	53.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:08+00:00	25.3%	13.5%	40.7%	29.8%	53.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:20+00:00	25.3%	13.5%	40.7%	29.8%	53.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:36+00:00	25.3%	13.5%	40.7%	29.8%	53.9%
2026-10-18T01:57:59+00:00	27.1%	13.5%	40.7%	29.8%	53.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:17+00:00	27.1%	13.5%	40.7%	29.8%	53.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	27.1%	13.5%	40.7%	29.8%	53.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	54%	59.2°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	59.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	58.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	41%	57.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	55.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	27%	55.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	54.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261023-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 59°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗