KBOS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

79%

76%

53%

24%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.6¢Risks 57.65u

EPSNO 42.4¢Risks 42.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.35u · EPS −42.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	70.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	15.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	76.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	60.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	13.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	68.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	52.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	59.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	30.1%	—	44.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	50.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	52.7%	35.5%	—	45.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	64.2%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	21.4%	33.0%	19.4%	36.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	24.2%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	21.0%	39.9%	29.1%	24.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	32.0%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	60.6%	46.9%	61.3%	43.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	49.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	47.6%	57.9%	25.5%	39.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	6.8%	77.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	60.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	58.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	76%	59.6°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	55.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	55.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	53%	55.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	51.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261024-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 17 · 07:43 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 55°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗