KBOS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

79%

76%

53%

24%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.6¢Risks 57.65u

EPSNO 42.4¢Risks 42.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.35u · EPS −42.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:43:53+00:00	75.7%	64.3%	88.0%	40.8%	69.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00	75.7%	64.3%	88.0%	40.8%	69.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:18+00:00	75.7%	64.3%	88.0%	40.8%	69.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	75.7%	64.3%	88.0%	40.8%	69.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00	75.7%	64.3%	88.0%	40.8%	69.2%
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00	75.7%	46.5%	88.8%	40.8%	69.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	75.7%	46.5%	88.8%	40.8%	69.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	75.7%	46.5%	88.8%	40.8%	69.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:39+00:00	58.9%	46.5%	88.8%	40.8%	69.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	58.9%	46.5%	88.7%	40.8%	69.6%
2026-10-17T15:24:24+00:00	58.9%	49.1%	88.7%	40.8%	69.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:28+00:00	58.9%	49.1%	88.7%	40.8%	69.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:36+00:00	58.9%	49.1%	76.5%	40.8%	69.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	58.9%	49.1%	76.5%	40.8%	69.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:53+00:00	58.9%	49.1%	76.5%	40.8%	69.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:00+00:00	58.9%	49.1%	76.5%	40.8%	69.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:07+00:00	49.3%	49.1%	76.5%	32.1%	50.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:24+00:00	49.3%	49.1%	76.5%	32.1%	50.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:34+00:00	49.3%	49.1%	76.5%	32.1%	50.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:41+00:00	49.3%	49.1%	76.5%	32.1%	50.8%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	49.3%	49.1%	76.5%	32.1%	50.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:08+00:00	49.3%	49.1%	65.2%	32.1%	50.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:20+00:00	49.3%	49.1%	65.2%	32.1%	50.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:36+00:00	49.3%	49.1%	65.2%	32.1%	50.8%
2026-10-18T01:57:59+00:00	83.5%	49.1%	65.2%	32.1%	50.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:17+00:00	83.5%	49.1%	65.2%	32.1%	50.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	83.5%	49.1%	65.2%	32.1%	50.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:22+00:00	86.6%	23.8%	69.6%	28.2%	46.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:42+00:00	86.6%	23.8%	69.6%	28.2%	46.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00	86.6%	23.8%	79.8%	28.2%	46.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:13+00:00	86.6%	23.8%	79.8%	28.2%	46.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:43+00:00	86.6%	23.8%	79.8%	28.2%	46.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00	86.6%	23.8%	79.8%	28.2%	46.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00	80.8%	23.8%	79.8%	53.0%	76.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:12+00:00	80.8%	23.8%	79.8%	53.0%	76.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:21+00:00	80.8%	23.8%	79.8%	53.0%	76.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:29+00:00	80.8%	23.8%	79.8%	53.0%	76.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	80.8%	23.8%	91.5%	53.0%	76.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	80.8%	23.8%	91.5%	53.0%	76.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:02+00:00	80.8%	23.8%	91.5%	53.0%	76.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:26+00:00	78.7%	23.8%	91.5%	53.0%	76.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	78.7%	23.8%	91.5%	53.0%	76.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:50+00:00	78.7%	23.8%	91.5%	53.0%	76.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	78.7%	23.8%	91.5%	53.0%	76.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	60.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	58.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	76%	59.6°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	55.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	55.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	53%	55.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	51.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261024-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 17 · 07:43 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 55°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗