KBOS / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

92%

90%

58%

58%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 78.0¢Risks 78.05u

HRESNO 22.0¢Risks 21.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.95u · HRES −21.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	92.2%	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	1.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	54.1%	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	28.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	13.3%	—	36.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	5.4%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	38.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	72.7%	—	33.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	67.3%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	58.1%	20.3%	81.5%	—	42.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	54.8%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	92.3%	71.4%	19.9%	69.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	73.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	76.3%	84.8%	82.5%	46.4%	64.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	84.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	68.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	66.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	90%	67.8°F	7.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	77%	61.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	58%	59.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	59.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	59.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261025-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗