KBOS / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

92%

90%

58%

58%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 78.0¢Risks 78.05u

HRESNO 22.0¢Risks 21.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.95u · HRES −21.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:00:43+00:00	79.3%	31.9%	86.3%	56.2%	49.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	79.3%	31.9%	86.3%	56.2%	49.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:14+00:00	79.3%	31.9%	86.3%	56.2%	49.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00	79.3%	31.9%	86.3%	56.2%	49.2%
2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00	79.3%	31.9%	86.3%	56.2%	49.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:07+00:00	79.3%	37.6%	81.6%	56.2%	49.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	79.3%	37.6%	81.6%	56.2%	49.2%
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00	79.3%	37.6%	81.6%	56.2%	49.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00	87.4%	37.6%	81.6%	56.2%	48.8%
2026-10-18T14:55:22+00:00	87.4%	37.6%	81.6%	56.2%	48.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:22+00:00	87.4%	36.8%	81.6%	56.2%	48.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:42+00:00	87.4%	36.8%	81.6%	56.2%	48.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00	87.4%	36.8%	93.7%	56.2%	48.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:13+00:00	87.4%	36.8%	93.7%	56.2%	48.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:43+00:00	87.4%	36.8%	93.7%	56.2%	48.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00	87.4%	36.8%	93.7%	56.2%	48.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00	87.4%	36.8%	93.7%	73.8%	89.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:12+00:00	87.4%	36.8%	93.7%	73.8%	89.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:21+00:00	87.4%	36.8%	93.7%	73.8%	89.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:29+00:00	87.4%	36.8%	93.7%	73.8%	89.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	87.4%	36.8%	96.8%	73.8%	89.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	87.4%	36.8%	96.8%	73.8%	89.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:02+00:00	87.4%	36.8%	96.8%	73.8%	89.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:26+00:00	85.2%	36.8%	96.8%	73.8%	89.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	85.2%	36.8%	96.8%	73.8%	89.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:50+00:00	85.2%	36.8%	96.8%	73.8%	89.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	85.2%	36.8%	96.8%	73.8%	89.8%
2026-10-19T04:30:12+00:00	85.2%	36.8%	96.8%	73.8%	89.8%
2026-10-19T05:16:49+00:00	85.2%	36.8%	95.7%	73.8%	89.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	85.2%	36.8%	95.7%	73.8%	89.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	85.2%	36.8%	95.7%	73.8%	89.8%
2026-10-19T07:32:27+00:00	91.7%	36.8%	95.7%	57.8%	90.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00	91.7%	36.8%	95.7%	57.8%	90.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00	91.7%	36.8%	95.7%	57.8%	90.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	91.7%	36.8%	95.7%	57.8%	90.3%
2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00	91.7%	36.8%	95.7%	57.8%	90.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:31+00:00	91.7%	58.5%	98.3%	57.8%	90.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00	91.7%	58.5%	98.3%	57.8%	90.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	68.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	66.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	90%	67.8°F	7.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	77%	61.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	58%	59.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	59.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	59.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261025-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗