KBOS / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 19 · 12:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

33%

20%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 18.1¢Risks 18.10u

EPSNO 81.9¢Risks 81.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +81.90u · EPS −81.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	0.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	0.2%	—	1.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	1.3%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	8.8%	—	0.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	6.1%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	0.2%	12.8%	—	1.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	2.5%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	24.6%	6.0%	0.1%	5.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	6.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	12.0%	10.3%	1.1%	3.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	10.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	35%	67.8°F	7.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	33%	68.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	66.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	59.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	59.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	59.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	61.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261025-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 11:48 UTC

Original listing: Boston runs hot-for-here: 71°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗