KBOS / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 19 · 12:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

33%

20%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 18.1¢Risks 18.10u

EPSNO 81.9¢Risks 81.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +81.90u · EPS −81.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:48:07+00:00	10.2%	0.6%	7.4%	4.4%	11.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	10.2%	0.6%	7.4%	4.4%	11.0%
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00	10.2%	0.6%	7.4%	4.4%	11.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00	17.4%	0.6%	7.4%	4.4%	10.9%
2026-10-18T14:55:22+00:00	17.4%	0.6%	7.4%	4.4%	10.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:22+00:00	17.4%	0.5%	7.4%	4.4%	10.9%
2026-10-18T16:26:42+00:00	17.4%	0.5%	7.4%	4.4%	10.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00	17.4%	0.5%	20.6%	4.4%	10.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:13+00:00	17.4%	0.5%	20.6%	4.4%	10.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00	17.4%	0.5%	20.6%	4.4%	10.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00	17.4%	0.5%	20.6%	4.4%	10.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00	17.4%	0.5%	20.6%	11.0%	52.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:12+00:00	17.4%	0.5%	20.6%	11.0%	52.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:21+00:00	17.4%	0.5%	20.6%	11.0%	52.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:29+00:00	17.4%	0.5%	20.6%	11.0%	52.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	17.4%	0.5%	31.2%	11.0%	52.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	17.4%	0.5%	31.2%	11.0%	52.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:02+00:00	17.4%	0.5%	31.2%	11.0%	52.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:26+00:00	14.8%	0.5%	31.2%	11.0%	52.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	14.8%	0.5%	31.2%	11.0%	52.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:50+00:00	14.8%	0.5%	31.2%	11.0%	52.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	14.8%	0.5%	31.2%	11.0%	52.8%
2026-10-19T04:30:12+00:00	14.8%	0.5%	31.2%	11.0%	52.8%
2026-10-19T05:16:49+00:00	14.8%	0.5%	26.6%	11.0%	52.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	14.8%	0.5%	26.6%	11.0%	52.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	14.8%	0.5%	26.6%	11.0%	52.8%
2026-10-19T07:32:27+00:00	20.3%	0.5%	26.6%	5.2%	35.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:19+00:00	20.3%	0.5%	26.6%	5.2%	35.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00	20.3%	0.5%	26.6%	5.2%	35.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	20.3%	0.5%	26.6%	5.2%	35.3%
2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00	20.3%	0.5%	26.6%	5.2%	35.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:31+00:00	20.3%	0.9%	32.6%	5.2%	35.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00	20.3%	0.9%	32.6%	5.2%	35.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00	20.3%	0.9%	32.6%	5.2%	35.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	35%	67.8°F	7.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	33%	68.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	66.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	59.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	59.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	59.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	61.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261025-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 11:48 UTC

Original listing: Boston runs hot-for-here: 71°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗