KBUF / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 10:50 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

29%

19%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 14.8¢Risks 14.85u

EPSNO 85.2¢Risks 85.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +85.15u · EPS −85.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	0.9%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	0.1%	5.2%	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	2.5%	11.2%	0.0%	—	1.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	1.3%	1.9%	2.6%	—	0.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	0.4%	8.1%	1.3%	—	0.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	1.0%	3.1%	1.4%	—	0.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	0.0%	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	1.7%	2.2%	1.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	2.1%	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	2.1%	1.4%	0.9%	—	0.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	2.8%	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	2.1%	2.3%	2.0%	—	0.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	1.2%	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	1.2%	2.9%	1.3%	—	0.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	0.9%	1.3%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	0.7%	2.4%	0.4%	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	0.4%	1.9%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	0.4%	1.4%	0.3%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.2%	0.7%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.2%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	29%	69.6°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0853
AIFS Single	19%	67.6°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0361
ICON	8%	58.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0056
IFS HRES	5%	62.2°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0027
IFS Ensemble	<1%	60.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0000
National Blend	<1%	61.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗