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KBUF / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 10:50 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
29%
AIFS
19%
ICON
8%
HRES
5%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 14.8¢Risks 14.85u
VS
EPSNO 85.2¢Risks 85.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +85.15u · EPS −85.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 19.0% · 2026-10-12T07:47:47+00:00AIFS Single: 19.0% · 2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00AIFS Single: 19.0% · 2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00AIFS Single: 19.0% · 2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00AIFS Single: 19.0% · 2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-12T07:47:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.2% · 2026-10-12T07:47:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.2% · 2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.2% · 2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.2% · 2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.2% · 2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00IFS HRES: 5.2% · 2026-10-12T07:47:47+00:00IFS HRES: 5.2% · 2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00IFS HRES: 5.2% · 2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00IFS HRES: 5.2% · 2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00IFS HRES: 5.2% · 2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00ICON: 7.5% · 2026-10-12T07:47:47+00:00ICON: 7.5% · 2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00ICON: 7.5% · 2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00ICON: 7.5% · 2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00ICON: 7.5% · 2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:0010-12 07:4710-12 09:1910-12 10:50
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T07:47:47+00:0019.0%0.5%29.2%5.2%7.5%
2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:0019.0%0.5%29.2%5.2%7.5%
2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:0019.0%0.5%29.2%5.2%7.5%
2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:0019.0%0.5%29.2%5.2%7.5%
2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:0019.0%0.5%29.2%5.2%7.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 229%69.6°F5.3°F2026-10-11 18:000.0853
AIFS Single19%67.6°F5.6°F2026-10-12 00:000.0361
ICON8%58.3°F9.9°F2026-10-12 00:000.0056
IFS HRES5%62.2°F6.3°F2026-10-12 00:000.0027
IFS Ensemble<1%60.9°F4.5°F2026-10-11 00:000.0000
National Blend<1%61.0°F4.4°F2026-10-12 00:000.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗