KBUF / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

81%

37%

34%

19%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.8¢Risks 55.80u

ICONNO 44.2¢Risks 44.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.20u · ICON −44.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	67.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	—	—	—	70.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	—	—	—	72.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	31.9%	—	—	65.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	36.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	27.5%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	41.0%	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	68.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	94.6%	7.7%	63.3%	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	86.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	46.5%	64.4%	9.6%	—	41.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	77.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	88.0%	66.3%	31.7%	33.7%	—	46.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	85.4%	64.9%	27.7%	60.6%	—	53.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	43.6%	16.9%	77.0%	—	48.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	1.4%	16.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	70.7%	58.3%	14.8%	56.6%	—	50.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	71.9%	30.3%	23.3%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	75.9%	39.6%	31.4%	43.0%	—	49.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	27.9%	35.1%	—	—	40.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	13.9%	34.7%	20.3%	—	31.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	12.7%	40.6%	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	53.9%	21.8%	38.5%	11.6%	—	22.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	29.9%	47.0%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	17.0%	36.9%	8.2%	—	17.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	19.0%	43.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	21.3%	48.9%	8.5%	—	19.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	25.8%	48.9%	0.0%	—	20.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	18.3%	55.8%	0.0%	0.0%	19.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	30.4%	69.6%	0.1%	—	19.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	56.2%	27.6%	64.6%	3.0%	20.8%	20.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	60.2%	3.7%	—	16.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	65.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	65.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	63.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	60.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	60.2°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	19%	58.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261021-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 62°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗