KBUF / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

81%

37%

34%

19%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.8¢Risks 55.80u

ICONNO 44.2¢Risks 44.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.20u · ICON −44.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:30:24+00:00	69.7%	27.7%	85.7%	37.7%	22.6%
2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00	69.7%	27.7%	83.6%	37.7%	22.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	69.7%	27.7%	83.6%	37.7%	22.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	69.7%	27.7%	83.6%	37.7%	22.6%
2026-10-19T07:32:40+00:00	72.3%	27.7%	83.6%	37.6%	18.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	72.3%	27.7%	83.6%	37.6%	18.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	72.3%	27.7%	83.6%	37.6%	18.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	72.3%	27.7%	83.6%	37.6%	18.4%
2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00	72.3%	27.7%	83.6%	37.6%	18.4%
2026-10-19T11:20:39+00:00	72.3%	26.9%	88.4%	37.6%	18.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00	72.3%	26.9%	88.4%	37.6%	18.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	72.3%	26.9%	88.4%	37.6%	18.4%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	73.9%	26.9%	88.4%	37.6%	18.4%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	74.0%	26.9%	88.4%	37.6%	18.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:16+00:00	74.0%	28.4%	88.4%	37.6%	18.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00	74.0%	28.4%	88.4%	37.6%	18.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	74.0%	28.4%	88.4%	37.6%	18.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	74.0%	28.4%	90.7%	37.6%	18.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	74.0%	28.4%	90.7%	37.6%	18.4%
2026-10-19T18:59:49+00:00	74.0%	28.4%	90.7%	37.6%	18.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	74.8%	28.4%	90.7%	41.3%	17.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	74.8%	28.4%	90.7%	41.3%	17.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	74.8%	28.4%	90.7%	41.3%	17.0%
2026-10-19T22:00:58+00:00	74.8%	28.4%	90.7%	41.3%	17.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	74.8%	28.4%	90.7%	41.3%	17.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	74.8%	28.4%	89.0%	41.3%	17.0%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	74.8%	28.4%	89.0%	41.3%	17.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:34+00:00	74.8%	28.4%	89.0%	41.3%	17.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	77.9%	28.4%	89.0%	41.3%	17.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	77.9%	28.4%	89.0%	41.3%	17.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	77.9%	28.4%	89.0%	41.3%	17.0%
2026-10-20T04:03:59+00:00	77.9%	28.4%	89.0%	41.3%	17.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00	77.9%	28.4%	89.0%	41.3%	17.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	77.9%	28.4%	89.0%	41.3%	17.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	77.9%	28.4%	89.0%	41.3%	17.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	77.9%	28.4%	89.0%	41.3%	17.0%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	81.3%	28.4%	89.0%	41.3%	19.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	81.3%	28.4%	89.0%	41.3%	19.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:17+00:00	81.3%	28.4%	89.0%	41.3%	19.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	81.3%	28.4%	89.0%	41.3%	19.1%
2026-10-20T10:53:03+00:00	81.3%	34.4%	92.6%	37.3%	19.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00	81.3%	34.4%	92.6%	37.3%	19.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	81.3%	34.4%	92.6%	37.3%	19.1%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	81.3%	34.4%	92.6%	37.3%	19.1%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00	81.4%	34.4%	92.6%	37.3%	19.0%
2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00	81.4%	34.4%	92.6%	37.3%	19.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	65.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	65.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	63.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	60.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	60.2°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	19%	58.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261021-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 62°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗