KBUF / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 16:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 10.5¢Risks 5.25u

EPSNO 89.5¢Risks 44.75u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.75u · EPS −44.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	2.6%	—	—	14.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	—	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	1.5%	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	3.1%	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	46.6%	0.1%	8.8%	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	26.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	3.2%	8.2%	0.1%	—	2.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	7.9%	1.0%	1.2%	—	2.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	6.3%	0.6%	5.0%	—	3.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	1.5%	0.1%	10.4%	—	2.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	3.0%	0.1%	2.7%	—	1.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	0.4%	0.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	0.7%	0.4%	0.9%	—	1.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.2%	0.4%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%	—	0.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.0%	0.4%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.1%	0.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.6%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	0.1%	—	0.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	20%	68.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	65.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
ICON	3%	62.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	61.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	63.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261021-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗