KBUF / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 16:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 10.5¢Risks 5.25u

EPSNO 89.5¢Risks 44.75u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.75u · EPS −44.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:13+00:00	69.1%	2.6%	41.2%	21.5%	8.1%
2026-10-14T11:20:35+00:00	69.1%	1.3%	51.6%	21.5%	8.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	69.1%	1.3%	51.6%	21.5%	8.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	69.1%	1.3%	51.6%	21.5%	8.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	50.0%	1.3%	51.6%	21.5%	8.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	50.0%	1.3%	51.6%	21.5%	8.3%
2026-10-14T15:12:03+00:00	50.0%	1.7%	51.6%	21.5%	8.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	50.0%	1.7%	51.6%	21.5%	8.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	50.0%	1.7%	51.6%	21.5%	8.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	50.0%	1.7%	39.0%	21.5%	8.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	50.0%	1.7%	39.0%	21.5%	8.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	50.0%	1.7%	39.0%	21.5%	8.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	24.9%	1.7%	39.0%	5.9%	27.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	24.9%	1.7%	39.0%	5.9%	27.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	24.9%	1.7%	39.0%	5.9%	27.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	24.9%	1.7%	39.0%	5.9%	27.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	24.9%	1.7%	39.0%	5.9%	27.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:29+00:00	24.9%	1.7%	39.0%	5.9%	27.6%
2026-10-15T00:14:39+00:00	24.9%	1.7%	23.0%	5.9%	27.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	24.9%	1.7%	23.0%	5.9%	27.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00	34.8%	1.7%	23.0%	5.9%	27.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	34.8%	1.7%	23.0%	5.9%	27.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:35+00:00	34.8%	1.7%	23.0%	5.9%	27.6%
2026-10-15T04:01:50+00:00	34.8%	1.7%	23.0%	5.9%	27.6%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	34.8%	1.7%	23.0%	5.9%	27.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	34.8%	1.7%	24.2%	5.9%	27.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	34.8%	1.7%	24.2%	5.9%	27.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	34.8%	1.7%	24.2%	5.9%	27.6%
2026-10-15T07:49:01+00:00	47.0%	1.7%	24.2%	9.6%	28.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	47.0%	1.7%	24.2%	9.6%	28.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:30+00:00	47.0%	1.7%	24.2%	9.6%	28.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:15+00:00	47.0%	1.7%	24.2%	9.6%	28.1%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	47.0%	1.7%	24.2%	9.6%	28.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:07+00:00	47.0%	1.7%	30.4%	9.6%	28.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	47.0%	0.4%	30.4%	9.6%	28.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:06+00:00	47.0%	0.4%	30.4%	9.6%	28.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	40.5%	0.5%	30.4%	9.6%	28.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	40.5%	0.5%	30.4%	9.6%	28.2%
2026-10-15T15:33:45+00:00	40.5%	0.4%	30.4%	9.6%	28.2%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	40.5%	0.4%	30.4%	9.6%	28.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	40.5%	0.4%	38.2%	9.6%	28.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00	40.5%	0.4%	38.2%	9.6%	28.2%
2026-10-15T18:35:55+00:00	40.5%	0.4%	38.2%	9.6%	28.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	40.5%	0.4%	38.2%	9.6%	28.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	41.2%	0.4%	38.2%	13.1%	26.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	41.2%	0.4%	38.2%	13.1%	26.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	41.2%	0.4%	38.2%	13.1%	26.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	41.2%	0.4%	38.2%	13.1%	26.8%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	41.2%	0.4%	31.9%	13.1%	26.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	41.2%	0.4%	31.9%	13.1%	26.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	41.2%	0.4%	31.9%	13.1%	26.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	30.2%	0.4%	31.9%	13.1%	26.8%
2026-10-16T02:07:57+00:00	30.2%	0.4%	31.9%	13.1%	26.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	30.2%	0.4%	31.9%	13.1%	26.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	30.2%	0.4%	31.9%	13.1%	26.8%
2026-10-16T04:23:53+00:00	30.2%	0.4%	31.9%	13.1%	26.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	30.2%	0.4%	35.0%	13.1%	26.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:49+00:00	30.2%	0.4%	35.0%	13.1%	26.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	30.2%	0.4%	35.0%	13.1%	26.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	40.4%	0.4%	35.0%	13.1%	8.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	40.4%	0.4%	35.0%	13.1%	8.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	40.4%	0.4%	35.0%	13.1%	8.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	40.4%	0.4%	35.0%	13.1%	8.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	40.4%	0.4%	35.0%	13.1%	8.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:06+00:00	40.4%	0.3%	45.2%	13.1%	8.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	40.4%	0.3%	45.2%	13.1%	8.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	40.4%	0.3%	45.2%	13.1%	8.8%
2026-10-16T13:28:02+00:00	31.4%	0.3%	45.2%	6.0%	8.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	31.4%	0.3%	45.2%	6.0%	8.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:11+00:00	31.4%	0.4%	45.2%	6.0%	8.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	31.4%	0.4%	45.2%	6.0%	8.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:07+00:00	31.4%	0.4%	45.2%	6.0%	8.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	31.4%	0.4%	35.8%	6.0%	8.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	31.4%	0.4%	35.8%	6.0%	8.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	31.4%	0.4%	35.8%	6.0%	8.9%
2026-10-16T19:36:52+00:00	20.4%	0.4%	35.8%	6.0%	14.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	20.4%	0.4%	35.8%	6.0%	14.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	20.4%	0.4%	35.8%	6.0%	14.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	20.4%	0.4%	35.8%	6.0%	14.7%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	20.4%	0.4%	35.8%	13.8%	14.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:19+00:00	20.4%	0.4%	32.2%	13.8%	14.8%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	20.4%	0.4%	32.2%	13.8%	14.8%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	20.4%	0.4%	32.2%	13.8%	14.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	21.0%	0.4%	32.2%	13.8%	14.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	21.0%	0.4%	32.2%	13.8%	14.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	21.0%	0.4%	32.2%	13.8%	14.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	21.0%	0.4%	32.2%	13.8%	14.8%
2026-10-17T04:41:01+00:00	21.0%	0.4%	32.2%	13.8%	14.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:20+00:00	21.0%	0.4%	24.0%	13.8%	14.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	21.0%	0.4%	24.0%	13.8%	14.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	21.0%	0.4%	24.0%	13.8%	14.8%
2026-10-17T07:44:00+00:00	21.6%	0.4%	24.0%	2.0%	2.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	21.6%	0.4%	24.0%	2.0%	2.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:28+00:00	21.6%	0.4%	24.0%	2.0%	2.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	21.6%	0.4%	24.0%	2.0%	2.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	21.6%	0.4%	24.0%	2.0%	2.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	21.6%	0.5%	20.2%	2.0%	2.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	21.6%	0.5%	20.2%	2.0%	2.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	21.6%	0.5%	20.2%	2.0%	2.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:47+00:00	9.5%	0.5%	20.2%	2.0%	2.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	9.6%	0.5%	20.3%	2.0%	2.6%
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	9.6%	0.7%	20.3%	2.0%	2.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	9.6%	0.7%	20.3%	2.0%	2.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	20%	68.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	65.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
ICON	3%	62.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	61.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	63.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261021-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗