KBUF / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

72%

17%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.1¢Risks 42.05u

ICONNO 57.9¢Risks 57.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.95u · ICON −57.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	84.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	17.6%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	74.3%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	69.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	83.7%	1.6%	31.8%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	80.1%	—	31.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	38.9%	34.3%	5.8%	—	40.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	61.3%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	69.0%	12.8%	58.0%	58.7%	—	39.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	46.2%	28.9%	52.3%	19.5%	—	38.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	20.6%	52.4%	33.0%	—	28.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	0.0%	56.5%	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	13.4%	47.5%	18.4%	—	18.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	46.6%	19.6%	47.4%	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	24.8%	49.1%	19.0%	—	17.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	24.2%	68.2%	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	26.6%	61.8%	11.0%	—	11.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	9.2%	45.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	43.2%	19.7%	49.0%	5.1%	—	7.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	35.3%	14.6%	45.0%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	32.1%	9.4%	46.9%	2.2%	—	4.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	9.2%	51.1%	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	5.0%	46.7%	12.5%	23.8%	5.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	43.3%	0.0%	—	3.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	80%	66.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	65.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	62.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	60.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	56.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	4%	57.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261022-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗