KBUF / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

72%

17%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.1¢Risks 42.05u

ICONNO 57.9¢Risks 57.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.95u · ICON −57.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:01+00:00	94.7%	69.1%	89.9%	46.2%	21.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	94.7%	69.1%	89.9%	46.2%	21.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:30+00:00	94.7%	69.1%	89.9%	46.2%	21.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:15+00:00	94.7%	69.1%	89.9%	46.2%	21.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	94.7%	69.1%	89.9%	46.2%	21.0%
2026-10-18T04:13:42+00:00	72.1%	40.1%	68.7%	17.6%	33.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	72.1%	40.1%	74.4%	17.6%	33.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	72.1%	40.1%	74.4%	17.6%	33.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	72.1%	40.1%	74.4%	17.6%	33.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	72.1%	40.1%	74.4%	17.6%	33.5%
2026-10-18T08:00:52+00:00	72.9%	40.1%	74.4%	17.9%	38.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	72.9%	40.1%	74.4%	17.9%	38.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	72.9%	40.1%	74.4%	17.9%	38.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	72.9%	40.1%	74.4%	17.9%	38.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:34+00:00	72.9%	24.2%	74.9%	17.9%	38.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	72.9%	24.2%	74.9%	17.9%	38.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	72.9%	24.2%	74.9%	17.9%	38.7%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	72.9%	24.2%	74.9%	17.9%	38.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	69.9%	24.2%	74.9%	17.9%	38.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00	69.9%	24.2%	74.9%	17.9%	38.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	69.9%	18.3%	74.9%	17.9%	38.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:47+00:00	69.9%	18.3%	74.9%	17.9%	38.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	69.9%	18.3%	75.7%	17.9%	38.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:17+00:00	69.9%	18.3%	75.7%	17.9%	38.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	69.9%	18.3%	75.7%	17.9%	38.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	68.4%	18.3%	75.7%	16.9%	41.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	68.4%	18.3%	75.7%	16.9%	41.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	68.4%	18.3%	75.7%	16.9%	41.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	68.4%	18.3%	75.7%	16.9%	41.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	68.4%	18.3%	75.7%	16.9%	41.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:38+00:00	68.4%	18.3%	79.7%	16.9%	41.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	68.4%	18.3%	79.7%	16.9%	41.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	68.4%	18.3%	79.7%	16.9%	41.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:28+00:00	69.9%	18.3%	79.7%	16.9%	41.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	69.9%	18.3%	79.7%	16.9%	41.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:52+00:00	69.9%	18.3%	79.7%	16.9%	41.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	69.9%	18.3%	79.7%	16.9%	41.9%
2026-10-19T04:30:24+00:00	69.9%	18.3%	79.7%	16.9%	41.9%
2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00	69.9%	18.3%	79.7%	16.9%	41.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	69.9%	18.3%	79.7%	16.9%	41.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	69.9%	18.3%	79.7%	16.9%	41.9%
2026-10-19T07:32:40+00:00	72.1%	18.3%	79.7%	5.6%	24.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	72.1%	18.3%	79.7%	5.6%	24.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	72.1%	18.3%	79.7%	5.6%	24.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	72.1%	18.3%	79.7%	5.6%	24.1%
2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00	72.1%	18.3%	79.7%	5.6%	24.1%
2026-10-19T11:20:39+00:00	72.1%	12.0%	82.9%	5.6%	24.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00	72.1%	12.0%	82.9%	5.6%	24.1%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	72.1%	12.0%	82.9%	5.6%	24.1%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	66.3%	12.0%	82.9%	5.6%	24.1%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	66.4%	12.0%	83.0%	5.6%	24.1%
2026-10-20T04:03:59+00:00	71.3%	13.2%	71.4%	2.7%	13.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00	71.3%	13.2%	71.4%	2.7%	13.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	71.3%	13.2%	77.2%	2.7%	13.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	71.3%	13.2%	77.2%	2.7%	13.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	71.3%	13.2%	77.2%	2.7%	13.5%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	72.4%	13.2%	77.2%	2.7%	3.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	72.4%	13.2%	77.2%	2.7%	3.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:17+00:00	72.4%	13.2%	77.2%	2.7%	3.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	72.4%	13.2%	77.2%	2.7%	3.8%
2026-10-20T10:53:03+00:00	72.4%	16.9%	79.9%	4.9%	3.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00	72.4%	16.9%	79.9%	4.9%	3.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	72.4%	16.9%	79.9%	4.9%	3.8%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	72.4%	16.9%	79.9%	4.9%	3.8%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00	72.4%	16.9%	80.0%	4.9%	4.1%
2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00	72.4%	16.9%	80.0%	4.9%	4.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	80%	66.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	65.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	62.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	60.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	56.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	4%	57.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261022-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗