KBUF / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 10.5¢Risks 5.27u

EPSNO 89.5¢Risks 44.73u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.73u · EPS −44.73u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	11.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	10.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	47.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	2.1%	—	—	14.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	31.2%	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	25.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	41.9%	0.0%	4.8%	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	6.5%	5.1%	0.2%	—	6.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.5%	0.8%	14.0%	14.4%	—	6.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	2.9%	10.0%	1.4%	—	5.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	6.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	1.3%	9.0%	3.3%	—	2.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	0.0%	10.2%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	0.5%	6.3%	0.9%	—	0.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	0.9%	5.9%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	1.3%	5.9%	0.8%	—	0.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	1.1%	13.5%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	1.2%	9.4%	0.2%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	0.1%	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	0.5%	4.2%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.2%	3.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.1%	3.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.1%	3.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.0%	2.3%	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	1.6%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	20%	66.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	65.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	6%	60.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	66.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	58.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	62.7°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261022-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo runs hot-for-here: 71°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗