KBUF / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 10.5¢Risks 5.27u

EPSNO 89.5¢Risks 44.73u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.73u · EPS −44.73u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T04:13:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:01+00:00	64.6%	12.2%	49.3%	11.5%	6.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	64.6%	12.2%	49.3%	11.5%	6.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:30+00:00	64.6%	12.2%	49.3%	11.5%	6.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:15+00:00	64.6%	12.2%	49.3%	11.5%	6.6%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	64.6%	12.2%	49.3%	11.5%	6.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:07+00:00	64.6%	12.2%	47.6%	11.5%	6.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	64.6%	5.4%	47.6%	11.5%	6.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:06+00:00	64.6%	5.4%	47.6%	11.5%	6.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	60.4%	5.4%	47.6%	11.8%	6.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	60.4%	5.4%	47.6%	11.8%	6.5%
2026-10-15T15:33:45+00:00	60.4%	5.2%	47.6%	11.8%	6.5%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	60.4%	5.2%	47.6%	11.8%	6.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	60.4%	5.2%	57.8%	11.8%	6.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00	60.4%	5.2%	57.8%	11.8%	6.5%
2026-10-15T18:35:55+00:00	60.4%	5.2%	57.8%	11.8%	6.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	60.4%	5.2%	57.8%	11.8%	6.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	42.3%	5.2%	57.8%	11.5%	34.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	42.3%	5.2%	57.8%	11.5%	34.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	42.3%	5.2%	57.8%	11.5%	34.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	42.3%	5.2%	57.8%	11.5%	34.4%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	42.3%	5.2%	49.2%	11.5%	34.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	42.4%	5.2%	49.2%	11.5%	34.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	42.4%	5.2%	49.2%	11.5%	34.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	36.3%	5.2%	49.2%	11.5%	34.4%
2026-10-16T02:07:57+00:00	36.3%	5.2%	49.2%	11.5%	34.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	36.3%	5.2%	49.2%	11.5%	34.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	36.3%	5.2%	49.2%	11.5%	34.4%
2026-10-16T04:23:54+00:00	36.3%	5.2%	49.2%	11.5%	34.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	36.3%	5.2%	51.6%	11.5%	34.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:49+00:00	36.3%	5.2%	51.6%	11.5%	34.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	36.3%	5.2%	51.6%	11.5%	34.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	43.4%	5.2%	51.6%	11.5%	8.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	43.4%	5.2%	51.6%	11.5%	8.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	43.4%	5.2%	51.6%	11.5%	8.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	43.4%	5.2%	51.6%	11.5%	8.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	43.4%	5.2%	51.6%	11.5%	8.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:06+00:00	43.4%	2.6%	49.1%	11.5%	8.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	43.4%	2.6%	49.1%	11.5%	8.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	43.4%	2.6%	49.1%	11.5%	8.8%
2026-10-16T13:28:02+00:00	31.5%	2.6%	49.1%	10.4%	8.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	31.5%	2.6%	49.1%	10.4%	9.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:11+00:00	31.5%	2.6%	49.1%	10.4%	9.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	31.5%	2.6%	49.1%	10.4%	9.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:07+00:00	31.5%	2.6%	49.1%	10.4%	9.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	31.5%	2.6%	48.3%	10.4%	9.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	31.5%	2.6%	48.3%	10.4%	9.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	31.5%	2.6%	48.3%	10.4%	9.1%
2026-10-16T19:36:52+00:00	21.9%	2.6%	48.3%	10.4%	19.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	21.9%	2.6%	48.3%	10.4%	19.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	21.9%	2.6%	48.3%	10.4%	19.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	21.9%	2.6%	48.3%	10.4%	19.2%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	21.9%	2.6%	48.3%	13.4%	19.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:19+00:00	21.9%	2.6%	37.4%	13.4%	19.2%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	21.9%	2.6%	37.4%	13.4%	19.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	21.9%	2.6%	37.4%	13.4%	19.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	22.4%	2.6%	37.4%	13.4%	19.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	22.4%	2.6%	37.4%	13.4%	19.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	22.4%	2.6%	37.4%	13.4%	19.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	22.4%	2.6%	37.4%	13.4%	19.2%
2026-10-17T04:41:02+00:00	22.4%	2.6%	37.4%	13.4%	19.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	22.4%	2.6%	26.7%	13.4%	19.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	22.4%	2.6%	26.7%	13.4%	19.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	22.4%	2.6%	26.7%	13.4%	19.2%
2026-10-17T07:44:00+00:00	25.3%	2.6%	26.7%	4.5%	8.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	25.3%	2.6%	26.7%	4.5%	8.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:28+00:00	25.3%	2.6%	26.7%	4.5%	8.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	25.3%	2.6%	26.7%	4.5%	8.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	25.3%	2.6%	26.7%	4.5%	8.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	25.3%	0.5%	21.8%	4.5%	8.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	25.3%	0.5%	21.8%	4.5%	8.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	25.3%	0.5%	21.8%	4.5%	8.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:47+00:00	21.0%	0.5%	21.8%	4.5%	8.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	21.0%	0.5%	21.8%	4.5%	8.5%
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	21.0%	0.7%	21.8%	4.5%	8.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	21.0%	0.7%	21.8%	4.5%	8.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	21.0%	0.7%	15.9%	4.5%	8.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	21.0%	0.7%	15.9%	4.5%	8.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	21.0%	0.7%	15.9%	4.5%	8.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	21.0%	0.7%	15.9%	4.5%	8.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	17.1%	0.7%	15.9%	1.6%	5.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	17.1%	0.7%	15.9%	1.6%	5.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	17.1%	0.7%	15.9%	1.6%	5.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	17.1%	0.7%	15.9%	1.6%	5.8%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	17.1%	0.7%	11.2%	1.6%	5.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	17.1%	0.7%	11.2%	1.6%	5.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	17.1%	0.7%	11.2%	1.6%	5.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:43+00:00	17.1%	0.7%	11.2%	1.6%	5.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	20.4%	0.7%	11.2%	1.6%	5.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	20.4%	0.7%	11.2%	1.6%	5.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	20.4%	0.7%	11.2%	1.6%	5.8%
2026-10-18T04:13:42+00:00	20.4%	0.7%	11.2%	1.6%	5.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	20%	66.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	65.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	6%	60.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	66.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	58.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	62.7°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261022-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo runs hot-for-here: 71°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗