KBUF / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

68%

32%

15%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 47.5¢Risks 47.45u

HRESNO 52.5¢Risks 52.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +52.55u · HRES −52.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	—	—	—	72.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	—	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	82.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	2.0%	—	—	64.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	21.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	89.9%	—	—	—	—	53.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	94.9%	—	13.5%	—	—	64.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	84.0%	—	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	88.6%	—	16.8%	—	—	65.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	89.4%	—	92.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	2.8%	87.9%	—	—	62.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	76.5%	27.5%	82.0%	36.9%	—	63.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	24.9%	60.8%	54.4%	—	37.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	38.7%	7.0%	75.5%	18.4%	—	30.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	65.2%	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	32.3%	50.0%	12.3%	—	15.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	26.3%	5.3%	49.2%	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	44.2%	49.2%	39.3%	—	12.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	20.1%	69.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	15.6%	53.5%	2.1%	—	6.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	10.3%	65.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	5.8%	50.0%	3.0%	—	2.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	25.3%	60.3%	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	22.5%	51.9%	18.3%	25.5%	5.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	54.0%	—	—	4.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	63.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	60.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	59.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	58.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	56.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	15%	53.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	49.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261023-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 59°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗