KBUF / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

68%

32%

15%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 47.5¢Risks 47.45u

HRESNO 52.5¢Risks 52.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +52.55u · HRES −52.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:13:42+00:00	51.5%	72.9%	80.4%	24.3%	28.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	51.5%	72.9%	76.0%	24.3%	28.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	51.5%	72.9%	76.0%	24.3%	28.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	51.5%	72.9%	76.0%	24.3%	28.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	51.5%	72.9%	76.0%	24.3%	28.8%
2026-10-18T08:00:52+00:00	60.4%	72.9%	76.0%	11.0%	52.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	60.4%	72.9%	76.0%	11.0%	52.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	60.4%	72.9%	76.0%	11.0%	52.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	60.4%	72.9%	76.0%	11.0%	52.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:34+00:00	60.4%	61.2%	80.3%	11.0%	52.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	60.4%	61.2%	80.3%	11.0%	52.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	60.4%	61.2%	80.3%	11.0%	52.6%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	60.4%	61.2%	80.3%	11.0%	52.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	53.2%	61.2%	80.3%	11.0%	52.6%
2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00	53.2%	61.2%	80.3%	11.0%	52.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	53.2%	53.3%	80.3%	11.0%	52.6%
2026-10-18T16:26:47+00:00	53.2%	53.3%	80.3%	11.0%	52.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	53.2%	53.3%	76.0%	11.0%	52.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:17+00:00	53.2%	53.3%	76.0%	11.0%	52.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	53.2%	53.3%	76.0%	11.0%	52.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	67.2%	53.3%	76.0%	15.8%	62.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	67.2%	53.3%	76.0%	15.8%	62.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	67.2%	53.3%	76.0%	15.8%	62.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	67.2%	53.3%	76.0%	15.8%	62.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	67.2%	53.3%	76.0%	15.8%	62.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:38+00:00	67.2%	53.3%	85.2%	15.8%	62.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	67.2%	53.3%	85.2%	15.8%	62.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	67.2%	53.3%	85.2%	15.8%	62.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:28+00:00	76.0%	53.3%	85.2%	15.8%	62.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	76.0%	53.3%	85.2%	15.8%	62.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:52+00:00	76.0%	53.3%	85.2%	15.8%	62.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	76.0%	53.3%	85.2%	15.8%	62.8%
2026-10-19T15:13:18+00:00	55.2%	31.5%	97.5%	15.4%	27.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00	55.2%	31.5%	97.5%	15.4%	27.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	55.2%	31.5%	97.5%	15.4%	27.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	55.2%	31.5%	90.2%	15.4%	27.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	55.2%	31.5%	90.2%	15.4%	27.6%
2026-10-19T18:59:49+00:00	55.2%	31.5%	90.2%	15.4%	27.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	57.8%	31.5%	90.2%	3.4%	14.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	57.8%	31.5%	90.2%	3.4%	14.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	57.8%	31.5%	90.2%	3.4%	14.7%
2026-10-19T22:00:58+00:00	57.8%	31.5%	90.2%	3.4%	14.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	57.8%	31.5%	90.2%	3.4%	14.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	57.8%	31.5%	91.5%	3.4%	14.7%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	57.8%	31.5%	91.5%	3.4%	14.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:34+00:00	57.8%	31.5%	91.5%	3.4%	14.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	68.5%	31.5%	91.5%	3.4%	14.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	68.5%	31.5%	91.5%	3.4%	14.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	68.5%	31.5%	91.5%	3.4%	14.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	63.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	60.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	59.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	58.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	56.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	15%	53.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	49.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261023-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 59°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗