KBUF / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

74%

54%

52%

38%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 62.6¢Risks 62.60u

EPSNO 37.4¢Risks 37.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +37.40u · EPS −37.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	28.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	70.2%	—	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	45.8%	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	4.9%	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	8.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	28.9%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	29.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	2.6%	58.7%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	50.0%	57.7%	7.7%	—	31.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	63.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	56.6%	68.3%	35.7%	62.3%	31.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	79.5%	—	—	1.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	87%	68.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	74%	68.0°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	64.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	64.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	63.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	62.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261026-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗