KBUF / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

74%

54%

52%

38%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 62.6¢Risks 62.60u

EPSNO 37.4¢Risks 37.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +37.40u · EPS −37.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-20T04:04:00+00:00	27.1%	46.4%	72.2%	44.4%	67.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00	27.1%	46.4%	72.2%	44.4%	67.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	27.1%	46.4%	77.8%	44.4%	67.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	27.1%	46.4%	77.8%	44.4%	67.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	27.1%	46.4%	77.8%	44.4%	67.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	53.7%	46.4%	77.8%	44.4%	73.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	53.7%	46.4%	77.8%	44.4%	73.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:18+00:00	53.7%	46.4%	77.8%	44.4%	73.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	53.7%	46.4%	77.8%	44.4%	73.6%
2026-10-20T10:53:04+00:00	53.7%	38.5%	86.7%	51.8%	73.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00	53.7%	38.5%	86.7%	51.8%	73.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	53.7%	38.5%	86.7%	51.8%	73.6%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	53.7%	38.5%	86.7%	51.8%	73.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00	53.7%	38.5%	86.7%	51.8%	73.6%
2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00	53.7%	38.5%	86.7%	51.8%	73.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	87%	68.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	74%	68.0°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	64.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	64.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	63.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	62.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261026-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗