KBWI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 65°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

74%

74%

49%

46%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 66.3¢Risks 66.30u

ICONNO 33.7¢Risks 33.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +33.70u · ICON −33.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	89.6%	—	—	—	—	38.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	48.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	—	0.5%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	17.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	37.2%	—	—	53.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	15.1%	63.3%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	63.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	16.6%	59.7%	16.6%	—	43.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	44.9%	65.7%	55.1%	63.6%	—	42.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	83.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	48.5%	73.0%	84.9%	59.8%	—	38.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	69.2%	80.5%	20.1%	—	22.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	0.8%	78.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	48.3%	74.9%	2.8%	—	15.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	28.1%	71.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	57.8%	54.4%	0.4%	—	18.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	53.6%	68.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	50.0%	36.4%	25.9%	—	13.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	54.7%	30.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	55.8%	16.5%	22.5%	—	4.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	58.9%	0.2%	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	60.2%	19.7%	32.1%	—	28.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	65.5%	40.6%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.6%	50.0%	45.6%	54.4%	0.0%	47.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	66.4%	51.1%	62.2%	0.0%	—	55.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	58.1%	46.5%	60.4%	65.9%	22.4%	54.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	67.5%	53.6%	65.3%	—	51.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	62.3%	62.3%	61.1%	64.6%	0.0%	53.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	52.6%	59.0%	57.7%	—	41.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	59.3%	52.7%	59.3%	50.0%	23.0%	47.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	66.2%	68.8%	59.7%	48.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	73.2%	62.8%	66.9%	54.3%	35.8%	54.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	60.5%	70.2%	45.5%	—	44.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	77.4%	71.0%	78.6%	54.7%	40.6%	46.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	91.4%	92.1%	74.6%	—	64.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	87%	70.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0180
AIFS Single	74%	68.2°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.0650
IFS HRES	74%	68.5°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0697
National Blend	55%	65.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.2070
IFS Ensemble	49%	64.4°F	5.5°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.2570
ICON	46%	63.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.2916

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261019-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 65°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗