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KBWI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 65°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 13 · 03:30 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
87%
AIFS
74%
HRES
74%
EPS
49%
ICON
46%
Consensus
70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 66.3¢Risks 66.30u
VS
ICONNO 33.7¢Risks 33.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +33.70u · ICON −33.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-10-12T11:35:19+00:00AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00AIFS Single: 67.9% · 2026-10-12T13:51:01+00:00AIFS Single: 67.8% · 2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00AIFS Single: 67.8% · 2026-10-12T15:26:34+00:00AIFS Single: 67.8% · 2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00AIFS Single: 67.8% · 2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:00AIFS Single: 67.8% · 2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00AIFS Single: 67.8% · 2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00AIFS Single: 67.8% · 2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00AIFS Single: 65.2% · 2026-10-12T19:58:30+00:00AIFS Single: 65.2% · 2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00AIFS Single: 65.2% · 2026-10-12T21:28:47+00:00AIFS Single: 65.2% · 2026-10-12T22:13:54+00:00AIFS Single: 65.2% · 2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00AIFS Single: 65.2% · 2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00AIFS Single: 65.2% · 2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00AIFS Single: 65.2% · 2026-10-13T01:14:37+00:00AIFS Single: 74.5% · 2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00AIFS Single: 74.5% · 2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00AIFS Single: 74.5% · 2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.7% · 2026-10-12T11:35:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.5% · 2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.5% · 2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.5% · 2026-10-12T13:51:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.5% · 2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.5% · 2026-10-12T15:26:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.3% · 2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.3% · 2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.3% · 2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.3% · 2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.3% · 2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.3% · 2026-10-12T19:58:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.3% · 2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.3% · 2026-10-12T21:28:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.3% · 2026-10-12T22:13:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.3% · 2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.3% · 2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.3% · 2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.3% · 2026-10-13T01:14:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.3% · 2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.3% · 2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.3% · 2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.7% · 2026-10-12T11:35:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.7% · 2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.7% · 2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.7% · 2026-10-12T13:51:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.6% · 2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.6% · 2026-10-12T15:26:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.6% · 2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-12T19:58:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-12T21:28:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.5% · 2026-10-12T22:13:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.6% · 2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.6% · 2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.6% · 2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.6% · 2026-10-13T01:14:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.6% · 2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.6% · 2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.6% · 2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00IFS HRES: 77.1% · 2026-10-12T11:35:19+00:00IFS HRES: 77.1% · 2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00IFS HRES: 77.1% · 2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00IFS HRES: 77.1% · 2026-10-12T13:51:01+00:00IFS HRES: 77.1% · 2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00IFS HRES: 77.1% · 2026-10-12T15:26:34+00:00IFS HRES: 77.1% · 2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00IFS HRES: 77.1% · 2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:00IFS HRES: 77.1% · 2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00IFS HRES: 77.1% · 2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00IFS HRES: 77.1% · 2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00IFS HRES: 73.6% · 2026-10-12T19:58:30+00:00IFS HRES: 73.6% · 2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00IFS HRES: 73.6% · 2026-10-12T21:28:47+00:00IFS HRES: 73.6% · 2026-10-12T22:13:54+00:00IFS HRES: 73.6% · 2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00IFS HRES: 73.6% · 2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00IFS HRES: 73.6% · 2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00IFS HRES: 73.6% · 2026-10-13T01:14:37+00:00IFS HRES: 73.6% · 2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00IFS HRES: 73.6% · 2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00IFS HRES: 73.6% · 2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00ICON: 43.6% · 2026-10-12T11:35:19+00:00ICON: 43.6% · 2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00ICON: 43.6% · 2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00ICON: 43.6% · 2026-10-12T13:51:01+00:00ICON: 43.6% · 2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00ICON: 43.6% · 2026-10-12T15:26:34+00:00ICON: 43.6% · 2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00ICON: 43.6% · 2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:00ICON: 43.6% · 2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00ICON: 43.6% · 2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00ICON: 43.6% · 2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00ICON: 46.0% · 2026-10-12T19:58:30+00:00ICON: 46.0% · 2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00ICON: 46.0% · 2026-10-12T21:28:47+00:00ICON: 46.0% · 2026-10-12T22:13:54+00:00ICON: 46.0% · 2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00ICON: 46.0% · 2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00ICON: 46.0% · 2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00ICON: 46.0% · 2026-10-13T01:14:37+00:00ICON: 46.0% · 2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00ICON: 46.0% · 2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00ICON: 46.0% · 2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:0010-12 11:3510-12 19:5810-13 03:30
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T11:35:19+00:0056.4%42.7%65.7%77.1%43.6%
2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:0056.4%51.5%65.7%77.1%43.6%
2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:0056.4%51.5%65.7%77.1%43.6%
2026-10-12T13:51:01+00:0067.9%51.5%65.7%77.1%43.6%
2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:0067.8%51.5%65.6%77.1%43.6%
2026-10-12T15:26:34+00:0067.8%51.5%65.6%77.1%43.6%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:0067.8%49.3%65.6%77.1%43.6%
2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:0067.8%49.3%79.5%77.1%43.6%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:0067.8%49.3%79.5%77.1%43.6%
2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:0067.8%49.3%79.5%77.1%43.6%
2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:0067.8%49.3%79.5%77.1%43.6%
2026-10-12T19:58:30+00:0065.2%49.3%79.5%73.6%46.0%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:0065.2%49.3%79.5%73.6%46.0%
2026-10-12T21:28:47+00:0065.2%49.3%79.5%73.6%46.0%
2026-10-12T22:13:54+00:0065.2%49.3%79.5%73.6%46.0%
2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:0065.2%49.3%86.6%73.6%46.0%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:0065.2%49.3%86.6%73.6%46.0%
2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:0065.2%49.3%86.6%73.6%46.0%
2026-10-13T01:14:37+00:0065.2%49.3%86.6%73.6%46.0%
2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:0074.5%49.3%86.6%73.6%46.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:0074.5%49.3%86.6%73.6%46.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:0074.5%49.3%86.6%73.6%46.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 287%70.0°F5.0°F2026-10-12 12:000.0180
AIFS Single74%68.2°F5.6°F2026-10-12 18:000.0650
IFS HRES74%68.5°F6.3°F2026-10-12 12:000.0697
National Blend55%65.0°F4.4°F2026-10-12 06:000.2070
IFS Ensemble49%64.4°F5.5°F2026-10-12 00:000.2570
ICON46%63.5°F9.9°F2026-10-12 12:000.2916

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261019-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 65°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗