KBWI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

84%

70%

53%

48%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 70.2¢Risks 70.25u

HRESNO 29.8¢Risks 29.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +29.75u · HRES −29.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	40.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	36.2%	—	—	53.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	85.3%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	38.8%	—	—	57.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	82.4%	—	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	80.2%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	90.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	31.8%	83.3%	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	67.7%	68.3%	17.1%	—	38.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	76.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	44.9%	57.3%	42.7%	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.2%	69.7%	58.3%	78.9%	—	50.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	36.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	80.5%	50.0%	71.9%	—	23.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	31.9%	20.7%	26.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	69.2%	31.5%	58.3%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	60.2%	47.4%	44.9%	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	49.1%	47.4%	43.9%	54.4%	—	29.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	56.3%	43.7%	58.9%	—	—	23.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	49.1%	25.9%	57.3%	40.0%	—	23.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	37.0%	49.0%	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	50.0%	56.8%	39.4%	—	19.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	49.0%	24.9%	49.0%	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	50.0%	46.9%	27.6%	—	17.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	54.2%	33.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	53.3%	62.9%	37.1%	36.1%	—	19.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	54.5%	38.9%	0.5%	—	16.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	48.8%	50.0%	40.8%	24.2%	0.6%	16.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	58.4%	41.6%	24.4%	—	19.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	55.0%	68.0%	45.0%	37.7%	25.6%	22.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	55.1%	—	51.3%	34.9%	—	20.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	69.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	69.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	67.2°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	53%	65.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	65.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261021-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗