KBWI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

84%

70%

53%

48%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 70.2¢Risks 70.25u

HRESNO 29.8¢Risks 29.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +29.75u · HRES −29.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:33:37+00:00	91.8%	71.0%	92.1%	60.2%	65.9%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	91.8%	71.0%	92.1%	60.2%	65.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	91.8%	71.0%	96.0%	60.2%	65.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:33+00:00	91.8%	71.0%	96.0%	60.2%	65.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:52+00:00	91.8%	71.0%	96.0%	60.2%	65.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00	91.8%	71.0%	96.0%	60.2%	65.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	40.5%	71.0%	96.0%	67.0%	81.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	40.5%	71.0%	96.0%	67.0%	81.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	40.5%	71.0%	96.0%	67.0%	81.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	40.5%	71.0%	96.0%	67.0%	81.3%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	40.5%	71.0%	93.3%	67.0%	81.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	40.5%	71.0%	93.3%	67.0%	81.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	40.5%	71.0%	93.3%	67.0%	81.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	69.2%	71.0%	93.3%	67.0%	81.2%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	69.2%	71.0%	93.3%	67.0%	81.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:26+00:00	69.2%	71.0%	93.3%	67.0%	81.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	69.2%	71.0%	93.3%	67.0%	81.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00	63.4%	46.2%	85.8%	45.9%	87.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	63.4%	46.2%	85.8%	45.9%	87.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:04+00:00	63.4%	46.2%	85.8%	45.9%	87.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	63.4%	46.2%	92.8%	45.9%	87.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	63.4%	46.2%	92.8%	45.9%	87.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	63.4%	46.2%	92.8%	45.9%	87.8%
2026-10-16T19:36:50+00:00	85.3%	46.2%	92.8%	45.9%	80.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	85.3%	46.2%	92.8%	45.9%	80.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	85.3%	46.2%	92.8%	45.9%	80.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	85.3%	46.2%	92.8%	45.9%	80.2%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	85.3%	46.2%	92.8%	52.8%	80.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:15+00:00	85.3%	46.2%	94.6%	52.8%	80.2%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	85.3%	46.2%	94.6%	52.8%	80.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	85.3%	46.2%	94.6%	52.8%	80.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:03+00:00	84.3%	46.2%	94.6%	52.8%	80.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	84.3%	46.2%	94.6%	52.8%	80.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	84.3%	46.2%	94.6%	52.8%	80.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	84.3%	46.2%	94.6%	52.8%	80.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:09+00:00	83.3%	67.4%	92.2%	38.5%	46.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00	83.3%	67.4%	92.2%	38.5%	46.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	83.3%	67.4%	92.2%	38.5%	46.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00	83.3%	67.4%	92.2%	38.5%	46.6%
2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00	83.9%	67.4%	92.2%	38.5%	53.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00	83.9%	67.4%	92.2%	38.5%	53.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00	83.9%	67.4%	92.2%	38.5%	53.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00	83.9%	67.4%	92.2%	38.5%	53.4%
2026-10-20T10:52:58+00:00	83.9%	70.0%	92.6%	47.9%	53.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00	83.9%	70.0%	92.6%	47.9%	53.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00	83.9%	70.0%	92.6%	47.9%	53.4%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	83.9%	70.0%	92.6%	47.9%	53.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00	84.0%	70.0%	92.6%	47.9%	53.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	69.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	69.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	67.2°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	53%	65.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	65.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261021-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗