KBWI / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

89%

75%

60%

28%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.1¢Risks 59.10u

HRESNO 40.9¢Risks 40.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.90u · HRES −40.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	78.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	95.8%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	90.1%	—	73.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	40.7%	—	—	79.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	84.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	—	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	96.7%	—	92.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	94.6%	—	30.2%	—	—	69.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	82.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	32.4%	—	—	70.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	78.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	89.2%	49.3%	71.2%	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	86.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	55.6%	94.6%	58.4%	—	70.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	85.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	34.3%	63.6%	72.2%	76.8%	—	51.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	64.2%	27.0%	82.1%	59.8%	—	43.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	82.6%	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	57.1%	81.1%	72.6%	—	35.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	37.2%	49.2%	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	40.9%	84.3%	48.3%	—	24.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	55.1%	34.2%	72.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	29.9%	67.8%	54.4%	—	16.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	37.6%	32.6%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	20.9%	55.5%	25.1%	—	9.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	30.1%	59.4%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	52.9%	50.0%	24.7%	38.5%	13.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	55.0%	—	—	12.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	65.4°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	89%	65.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	64.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	60%	62.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	61.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	58.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261023-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 62°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗