KBWI / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

89%

75%

60%

28%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.1¢Risks 59.10u

HRESNO 40.9¢Risks 40.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.90u · HRES −40.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T15:13:13+00:00	70.0%	90.7%	95.5%	33.7%	44.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	70.0%	90.7%	95.5%	33.7%	44.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:12+00:00	70.0%	90.7%	95.5%	33.7%	44.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	70.0%	90.7%	89.2%	33.7%	44.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	70.0%	90.7%	89.2%	33.7%	44.3%
2026-10-19T18:59:46+00:00	70.0%	90.7%	89.2%	33.7%	44.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	68.5%	90.7%	89.2%	17.9%	35.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	68.5%	90.7%	89.2%	17.9%	35.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	68.5%	90.7%	89.2%	17.9%	35.6%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	68.5%	90.7%	89.2%	17.9%	35.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	68.5%	90.7%	89.2%	17.9%	35.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	68.5%	90.7%	89.7%	17.9%	35.6%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	68.5%	90.7%	89.7%	17.9%	35.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:32+00:00	68.5%	90.7%	89.7%	17.9%	35.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	71.5%	90.7%	89.7%	17.9%	35.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	71.5%	90.7%	89.7%	17.9%	35.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00	71.5%	90.7%	89.7%	17.9%	35.6%
2026-10-20T04:03:43+00:00	71.5%	90.7%	89.7%	17.9%	35.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:09+00:00	71.5%	90.7%	89.7%	17.9%	35.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00	71.5%	90.7%	88.7%	17.9%	35.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	71.5%	90.7%	88.7%	17.9%	35.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00	71.5%	90.7%	88.7%	17.9%	35.6%
2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00	75.2%	90.7%	88.7%	17.9%	59.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00	75.2%	90.7%	88.7%	17.9%	59.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00	75.2%	90.7%	88.7%	17.9%	59.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00	75.2%	90.7%	88.7%	17.9%	59.9%
2026-10-20T10:52:58+00:00	75.2%	90.2%	89.4%	28.0%	59.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00	75.2%	90.2%	89.4%	28.0%	59.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00	75.2%	90.2%	89.4%	28.0%	59.9%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	75.2%	90.2%	89.4%	28.0%	59.9%
2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00	75.2%	90.2%	89.4%	28.0%	59.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	65.4°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	89%	65.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	64.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	60%	62.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	61.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	58.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261023-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 62°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗