KBWI / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

72%

54%

29%

21%

Consensus

54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.1¢Risks 54.10u

HRESNO 45.9¢Risks 45.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.90u · HRES −45.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	90.3%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	—	—	—	70.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	92.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	95.8%	—	—	—	—	71.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	29.8%	—	—	70.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	75.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	86.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	20.2%	—	—	57.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	73.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	21.7%	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	64.9%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	81.5%	36.1%	58.7%	—	—	48.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	77.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.6%	41.6%	89.5%	44.4%	—	57.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	49.3%	58.7%	64.3%	—	37.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	—	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	16.0%	70.4%	44.7%	—	28.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	70.8%	—	—	19.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	52.4%	41.3%	68.4%	57.9%	—	21.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	23.1%	33.4%	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	42.5%	25.8%	72.1%	32.2%	—	13.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	20.1%	56.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	36.3%	16.7%	50.9%	37.1%	—	8.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	22.2%	18.4%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	10.2%	37.3%	12.9%	—	3.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	15.9%	40.6%	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	33.9%	31.3%	12.1%	21.8%	5.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	35.3%	—	—	4.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	88%	67.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	72%	65.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	63.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	29%	60.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	59.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261023-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗