KBWI / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

72%

54%

29%

21%

Consensus

54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.1¢Risks 54.10u

HRESNO 45.9¢Risks 45.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.90u · HRES −45.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:55:28+00:00	66.4%	75.9%	88.3%	16.7%	60.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	66.4%	66.6%	88.3%	16.7%	60.3%
2026-10-18T16:26:44+00:00	66.4%	66.6%	88.3%	16.7%	60.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:03+00:00	66.4%	66.6%	85.8%	16.7%	60.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:15+00:00	66.4%	66.6%	85.8%	16.7%	60.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00	66.4%	66.6%	85.8%	16.7%	60.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:52+00:00	71.4%	66.6%	85.8%	21.3%	47.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	71.4%	66.6%	85.8%	21.3%	47.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	71.4%	66.6%	85.8%	21.3%	47.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	71.4%	66.6%	85.8%	21.3%	47.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	71.4%	66.6%	85.8%	21.3%	47.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	71.4%	66.6%	86.3%	21.3%	47.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	71.4%	66.6%	86.3%	21.3%	47.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	71.4%	66.6%	86.3%	21.3%	47.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:27+00:00	68.6%	66.6%	86.3%	21.3%	47.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	68.6%	66.6%	86.3%	21.3%	47.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:51+00:00	68.6%	66.6%	86.3%	21.3%	47.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	68.6%	66.6%	86.3%	21.3%	47.4%
2026-10-19T04:30:18+00:00	68.6%	66.6%	86.3%	21.3%	47.4%
2026-10-19T05:16:52+00:00	68.6%	66.6%	82.9%	21.3%	47.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	68.6%	66.6%	82.9%	21.3%	47.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	68.6%	66.6%	82.9%	21.3%	47.4%
2026-10-19T07:32:34+00:00	68.4%	66.6%	82.9%	20.6%	29.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	68.4%	66.6%	82.9%	20.6%	29.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	68.4%	66.6%	82.9%	20.6%	29.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	68.4%	66.6%	82.9%	20.6%	29.0%
2026-10-19T10:34:53+00:00	68.4%	66.6%	82.9%	20.6%	29.0%
2026-10-19T11:20:35+00:00	68.4%	72.1%	87.6%	20.6%	29.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:26+00:00	68.4%	72.1%	87.6%	20.6%	29.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:48+00:00	68.4%	72.1%	87.6%	20.6%	29.0%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00	53.5%	72.1%	87.6%	20.6%	29.0%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	53.5%	72.1%	87.6%	20.6%	29.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	88%	67.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	72%	65.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	63.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	29%	60.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	59.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261023-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗