KBWI / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

83%

53%

34%

33%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 58.4¢Risks 58.35u

EPSNO 41.6¢Risks 41.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.65u · EPS −41.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	—	—	—	—	77.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	26.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	55.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	31.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—	65.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	75.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	56.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	51.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	69.9%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	53.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	10.5%	63.9%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	9.9%	66.4%	20.4%	—	25.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	39.9%	35.0%	55.8%	40.6%	—	22.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	35.1%	62.7%	64.9%	—	25.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	40.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	30.9%	39.7%	24.2%	—	20.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	2.0%	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	31.5%	40.1%	30.0%	—	21.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	62.6%	35.8%	37.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	54.4%	62.1%	38.8%	52.6%	29.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	62.4%	—	—	32.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	65.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	66.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	53%	61.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	59.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	60.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261024-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗