KBWI / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

83%

53%

34%

33%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 58.4¢Risks 58.35u

EPSNO 41.6¢Risks 41.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.65u · EPS −41.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T04:03:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:55:30+00:00	79.2%	53.2%	69.6%	20.7%	58.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	79.2%	45.9%	69.6%	20.7%	58.9%
2026-10-18T16:26:44+00:00	79.2%	45.9%	69.6%	20.7%	58.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:03+00:00	79.2%	45.9%	71.8%	20.7%	58.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:15+00:00	79.2%	45.9%	71.8%	20.7%	58.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00	79.2%	45.9%	71.8%	20.7%	58.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:52+00:00	72.9%	45.9%	71.8%	29.8%	59.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	72.9%	45.9%	71.8%	29.8%	59.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	72.9%	45.9%	71.8%	29.8%	59.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	72.9%	45.9%	71.8%	29.8%	59.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	72.9%	45.9%	71.8%	29.8%	59.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	72.9%	45.9%	76.7%	29.8%	59.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	72.9%	45.9%	76.7%	29.8%	59.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	72.9%	45.9%	76.7%	29.8%	59.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:27+00:00	71.0%	45.9%	76.7%	29.8%	59.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	71.0%	45.9%	76.7%	29.8%	59.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:51+00:00	71.0%	45.9%	76.7%	29.8%	59.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	71.0%	45.9%	76.7%	29.8%	59.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:14+00:00	81.9%	32.6%	82.9%	17.5%	51.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	81.9%	32.6%	82.9%	17.5%	51.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:12+00:00	81.9%	32.6%	82.9%	17.5%	51.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	81.9%	32.6%	85.2%	17.5%	51.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	81.9%	32.6%	85.2%	17.5%	51.3%
2026-10-19T18:59:46+00:00	81.9%	32.6%	85.2%	17.5%	51.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	84.9%	32.6%	85.2%	33.9%	52.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	84.9%	32.6%	85.2%	33.9%	52.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	84.9%	32.6%	85.2%	33.9%	52.6%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	84.9%	32.6%	85.2%	33.9%	52.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	84.9%	32.6%	85.2%	33.9%	52.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	84.9%	32.6%	84.1%	33.9%	52.6%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	84.9%	32.6%	84.1%	33.9%	52.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:32+00:00	84.9%	32.6%	84.1%	33.9%	52.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	83.4%	32.6%	84.1%	33.9%	52.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	83.4%	32.6%	84.1%	33.9%	52.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00	83.4%	32.6%	84.1%	33.9%	52.6%
2026-10-20T04:03:43+00:00	83.4%	32.6%	84.1%	33.9%	52.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	65.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	66.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	53%	61.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	59.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	60.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261024-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗