KBWI / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

82%

72%

52%

29%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 58.3¢Risks 58.30u

EPSNO 41.7¢Risks 41.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.70u · EPS −41.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	23.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	—	—	—	16.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	52.4%	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	12.5%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	3.1%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	42.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	60.7%	0.5%	48.0%	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	45.8%	24.1%	1.8%	—	29.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	70.9%	52.2%	20.4%	26.0%	35.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	47.0%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	87%	75.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	82%	77.1°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	73.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	70.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	70.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	29%	68.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261026-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 20 · 04:51 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗