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KBWI / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
87%
ICON
82%
AIFS
72%
HRES
52%
EPS
29%
Consensus
60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 58.3¢Risks 58.30u
VS
EPSNO 41.7¢Risks 41.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.70u · EPS −41.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 75.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:10+00:00AIFS Single: 75.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00AIFS Single: 75.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00AIFS Single: 75.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-20T10:52:58+00:00AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00AIFS Single: 72.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.5% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.4% · 2026-10-20T10:52:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.4% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.2% · 2026-10-20T10:52:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.2% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00IFS HRES: 57.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:10+00:00IFS HRES: 57.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00IFS HRES: 57.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00IFS HRES: 57.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00IFS HRES: 57.4% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00IFS HRES: 57.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00IFS HRES: 57.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00IFS HRES: 57.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-20T10:52:58+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS HRES: 51.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00ICON: 65.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:10+00:00ICON: 65.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00ICON: 65.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00ICON: 65.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00ICON: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00ICON: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00ICON: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00ICON: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00ICON: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T10:52:58+00:00ICON: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00ICON: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00ICON: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00ICON: 82.3% · 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:0010-20 04:5110-20 09:2210-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:51:10+00:0075.7%20.5%87.2%57.4%65.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:0075.7%20.5%82.2%57.4%65.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:0075.7%20.5%82.2%57.4%65.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:0075.7%20.5%82.2%57.4%65.5%
2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:0072.3%20.5%82.2%57.4%82.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:0072.3%20.5%82.2%57.4%82.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:0072.3%20.5%82.2%57.4%82.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:0072.3%20.5%82.2%57.4%82.3%
2026-10-20T10:52:58+00:0072.3%29.4%87.2%51.8%82.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:0072.3%29.4%87.2%51.8%82.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:0072.3%29.4%87.2%51.8%82.3%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:0072.3%29.4%87.2%51.8%82.3%
2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:0072.4%29.4%87.2%51.8%82.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 287%75.8°F4.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON82%77.1°F7.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single72%73.7°F5.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%71.0°F5.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS HRES52%70.8°F6.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend44%70.0°F3.3°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble29%68.5°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261026-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 20 · 04:51 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗