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KBWI / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
90%
WN2
82%
EPS
74%
HRES
51%
ICON
42%
Consensus
74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 66.5¢Risks 66.50u
VS
ICONNO 33.5¢Risks 33.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +33.50u · ICON −33.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 24.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.8% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 64.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.5% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.7% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 76.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.3% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 91.7% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 67.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 63.6% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 66.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 71.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 67.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 80.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.7% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 74.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 85.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 41.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 39.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 83.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 63.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 64.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 65.5% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 82.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 82.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 36.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 43.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 33.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 38.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 32.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 38.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 37.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 43.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 38.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 06:0010-16 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0024.0%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.3%———6.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0046.8%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0064.5%———43.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0062.5%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0027.4%———35.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0044.7%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0076.8%———30.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0051.6%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:005.3%———33.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0010.3%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0046.3%———38.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0091.7%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0067.0%———34.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0039.0%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0055.8%———32.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0063.6%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0036.4%———38.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0047.3%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0066.0%———37.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0071.2%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0067.0%———30.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0080.3%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0036.8%—41.8%—35.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0020.5%—39.4%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:009.0%———31.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:005.4%—21.5%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:008.1%—83.6%—31.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:009.7%—63.2%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0029.5%—64.6%—43.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:007.9%—65.5%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0074.6%13.5%82.9%36.1%38.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0085.0%—82.0%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single90%75.0°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 282%72.2°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble74%69.7°F3.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend53%68.0°F6.6°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES51%67.6°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON42%65.6°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261027-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 20 · 10:52 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗