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KBWI / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
90%
WN2
82%
EPS
74%
HRES
51%
ICON
42%
Consensus
74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 66.5¢Risks 66.50u
VS
ICONNO 33.5¢Risks 33.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +33.50u · ICON −33.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-20T10:52:58+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00AIFS Single: 90.4% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00AIFS Single: 90.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.1% · 2026-10-20T10:52:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.1% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-20T10:52:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-20T10:52:58+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00ICON: 42.5% · 2026-10-20T10:52:58+00:00ICON: 42.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00ICON: 42.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00ICON: 42.5% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00ICON: 42.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:0010-20 10:5210-20 12:2410-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:52:58+00:0090.4%74.1%82.2%50.6%42.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:0090.4%74.1%82.2%50.6%42.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:0090.4%74.1%82.2%50.6%42.5%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:0090.4%74.1%82.2%50.6%42.5%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:0090.5%74.1%82.2%50.6%42.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single90%75.0°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 282%72.2°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble74%69.7°F3.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend53%68.0°F6.6°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES51%67.6°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON42%65.6°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261027-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 20 · 10:52 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗