KCHS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

93%

65%

55%

52%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 73.8¢Risks 73.75u

EPSNO 26.2¢Risks 26.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +26.25u · EPS −26.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	52.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	84.2%	—	—	—	—	79.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	88.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	95.4%	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	92.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	82.4%	—	—	64.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	85.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	16.7%	61.3%	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	55.6%	68.9%	11.9%	—	52.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	78.5%	55.1%	58.0%	—	33.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	83.1%	46.2%	58.3%	—	40.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	77.6%	61.8%	30.9%	—	40.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	72.4%	4.5%	70.3%	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	77.5%	72.8%	72.1%	53.3%	—	36.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	79.9%	26.7%	61.0%	—	—	35.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	81.6%	60.4%	79.2%	53.5%	—	32.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	80.4%	62.4%	75.8%	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	79.7%	49.1%	82.2%	30.6%	—	36.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	76.2%	50.9%	69.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	66.1%	52.9%	75.3%	51.9%	—	43.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	70.9%	56.0%	68.3%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	71.5%	43.9%	73.2%	43.9%	—	42.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	47.9%	72.1%	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	56.5%	84.5%	47.8%	48.9%	52.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	89.3%	0.0%	—	48.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	77.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	78.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	74.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	65%	74.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	55%	72.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	72.6°F	2.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261022-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 73°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗