KCHS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

93%

65%

55%

52%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 73.8¢Risks 73.75u

EPSNO 26.2¢Risks 26.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +26.25u · EPS −26.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:21+00:00	92.3%	28.8%	91.1%	43.4%	88.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	92.3%	28.8%	90.4%	43.4%	88.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	92.3%	28.8%	90.4%	43.4%	88.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	92.3%	28.8%	90.4%	43.4%	88.9%
2026-10-17T07:44:08+00:00	92.7%	28.8%	90.4%	45.9%	86.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	92.7%	28.8%	90.4%	45.9%	86.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:31+00:00	92.7%	28.8%	90.4%	45.9%	86.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	92.7%	28.8%	90.4%	45.9%	86.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	92.7%	28.8%	90.4%	45.9%	86.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	92.7%	50.0%	95.6%	45.9%	86.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	92.7%	50.0%	95.6%	45.9%	86.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	92.7%	50.0%	95.6%	45.9%	86.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:49+00:00	89.4%	50.0%	95.6%	45.9%	86.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	89.5%	50.0%	95.6%	45.9%	85.6%
2026-10-17T15:24:31+00:00	89.5%	53.3%	95.6%	45.9%	85.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	89.5%	53.3%	95.6%	45.9%	85.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	89.5%	53.3%	94.3%	45.9%	85.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	89.5%	53.3%	94.3%	45.9%	85.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	89.5%	53.3%	94.3%	45.9%	85.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	89.5%	53.3%	94.3%	45.9%	85.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	91.8%	53.3%	94.3%	45.9%	82.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	91.8%	53.3%	94.3%	45.9%	82.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	91.8%	53.3%	94.3%	45.9%	82.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	91.8%	53.3%	94.3%	45.9%	82.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	91.8%	53.3%	96.0%	45.9%	82.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	91.8%	53.3%	96.0%	45.9%	82.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	91.8%	53.3%	96.0%	45.9%	82.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	91.8%	53.3%	96.0%	45.9%	82.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	92.4%	53.3%	96.0%	45.9%	82.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	92.4%	53.3%	96.0%	45.9%	82.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	92.4%	53.3%	96.0%	45.9%	82.0%
2026-10-18T04:13:49+00:00	92.4%	53.3%	96.0%	45.9%	82.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	92.4%	53.3%	96.4%	45.9%	82.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	92.4%	53.3%	96.4%	45.9%	82.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	92.4%	53.3%	96.4%	45.9%	82.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	92.4%	53.3%	96.4%	45.9%	82.0%
2026-10-18T08:00:59+00:00	94.4%	53.3%	96.4%	46.0%	72.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	94.4%	53.3%	96.4%	46.0%	72.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	94.4%	53.3%	96.4%	46.0%	72.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	94.4%	53.3%	96.4%	46.0%	72.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:36+00:00	94.4%	26.8%	96.8%	46.0%	72.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	94.4%	26.8%	96.8%	46.0%	72.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	94.4%	26.8%	96.8%	46.0%	72.4%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	94.4%	26.8%	96.8%	46.0%	72.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	93.9%	26.8%	96.8%	46.0%	72.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:38+00:00	93.9%	26.8%	96.8%	46.0%	72.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	93.9%	20.7%	96.8%	46.0%	72.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:51+00:00	93.9%	20.7%	96.8%	46.0%	72.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	93.9%	20.7%	97.0%	46.0%	72.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:19+00:00	93.9%	20.7%	97.0%	46.0%	72.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	93.9%	20.7%	97.0%	46.0%	72.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	93.4%	20.7%	97.0%	48.4%	62.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	93.4%	20.7%	97.0%	48.4%	62.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	93.4%	20.7%	97.0%	48.4%	62.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	93.4%	20.7%	97.0%	48.4%	62.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	93.4%	20.7%	97.0%	48.4%	62.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	93.4%	20.7%	96.2%	48.4%	62.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	93.4%	20.7%	96.2%	48.4%	62.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	93.4%	20.7%	96.2%	48.4%	62.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	91.5%	20.7%	96.2%	48.4%	62.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	91.5%	20.7%	96.2%	48.4%	62.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:54+00:00	91.5%	20.7%	96.2%	48.4%	62.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	91.5%	20.7%	96.2%	48.4%	62.8%
2026-10-19T04:30:31+00:00	91.5%	20.7%	96.2%	48.4%	62.8%
2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00	91.5%	20.7%	95.4%	48.4%	62.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	91.5%	20.7%	95.4%	48.4%	62.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	91.5%	20.7%	95.4%	48.4%	62.8%
2026-10-19T07:32:49+00:00	87.9%	20.7%	95.4%	56.2%	59.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	87.9%	20.7%	95.4%	56.2%	59.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	87.9%	20.7%	95.4%	56.2%	59.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	87.9%	20.7%	95.4%	56.2%	59.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:02+00:00	87.9%	20.7%	95.4%	56.2%	59.9%
2026-10-19T11:20:43+00:00	87.9%	35.6%	91.8%	56.2%	59.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:29+00:00	87.9%	35.6%	91.8%	56.2%	59.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	87.9%	35.6%	91.8%	56.2%	59.9%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	90.1%	35.6%	91.8%	56.2%	59.9%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	90.2%	35.6%	91.9%	56.2%	59.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:22+00:00	90.2%	37.1%	91.9%	56.2%	59.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	90.2%	37.1%	91.9%	56.2%	59.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	90.2%	37.1%	91.9%	56.2%	59.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00	90.2%	37.1%	91.5%	56.2%	59.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	90.2%	37.1%	91.5%	56.2%	59.9%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	90.2%	37.1%	91.5%	56.2%	59.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:26+00:00	89.8%	37.1%	91.5%	58.0%	51.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	89.8%	37.1%	91.5%	58.0%	51.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	89.8%	37.1%	91.5%	58.0%	51.0%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	89.8%	37.1%	91.5%	58.0%	51.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	89.8%	37.1%	91.5%	58.0%	51.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00	89.8%	37.1%	92.8%	58.0%	51.0%
2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:00	89.8%	37.1%	92.8%	58.0%	51.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	89.8%	37.1%	92.8%	58.0%	51.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	91.3%	37.1%	92.8%	58.0%	51.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	91.3%	37.1%	92.8%	58.0%	51.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	91.3%	37.1%	92.8%	58.0%	51.0%
2026-10-20T04:04:15+00:00	91.3%	37.1%	92.8%	58.0%	51.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	91.3%	37.1%	92.8%	58.0%	51.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	91.3%	37.1%	94.6%	58.0%	51.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	91.3%	37.1%	94.6%	58.0%	51.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	91.3%	37.1%	94.6%	58.0%	51.0%
2026-10-20T07:51:53+00:00	92.8%	37.1%	94.6%	58.0%	53.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	92.8%	37.1%	94.6%	58.0%	53.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00	92.8%	37.1%	94.6%	58.0%	53.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	92.8%	37.1%	94.6%	58.0%	53.4%
2026-10-20T10:53:13+00:00	92.8%	51.5%	95.9%	65.2%	53.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	92.8%	51.5%	95.9%	65.2%	53.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	92.8%	51.5%	95.9%	65.2%	53.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	92.8%	51.5%	95.9%	65.2%	53.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00	92.8%	51.5%	96.0%	65.2%	54.5%
2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00	92.8%	51.5%	96.0%	65.2%	54.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	77.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	78.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	74.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	65%	74.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	55%	72.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	72.6°F	2.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261022-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 73°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗