KCHS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 15 · 10:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

55%

34%

32%

24%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 45.5¢Risks 45.50u

AIFSNO 54.5¢Risks 54.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +54.50u · AIFS −54.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	—	—	—	67.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	78.7%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	—	—	—	60.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	64.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	88.7%	—	—	47.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	83.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	67.0%	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	71.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	7.0%	41.3%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	34.9%	48.6%	4.4%	—	31.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	59.4%	33.7%	36.4%	—	16.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	35.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	64.9%	25.1%	35.8%	—	21.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	27.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	56.4%	38.2%	13.6%	—	20.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	1.0%	46.7%	—	—	15.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	55.0%	49.2%	48.3%	29.3%	—	16.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	57.6%	10.3%	35.8%	—	—	15.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	34.6%	56.1%	28.4%	—	13.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	35.9%	50.9%	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	55.5%	23.7%	59.1%	11.5%	—	14.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	24.6%	42.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	25.5%	48.0%	24.7%	—	18.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	27.4%	39.1%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	17.6%	43.9%	17.6%	—	17.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	19.8%	41.6%	—	—	20.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	25.5%	57.6%	19.0%	19.8%	22.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	65.4%	0.0%	—	19.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	67%	77.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	55%	75.9°F	3.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	76.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	34%	71.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	72.6°F	6.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	24%	71.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261022-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 76°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗