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KCHS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 15 · 10:52 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
67%
EPS
55%
ICON
34%
HRES
32%
AIFS
24%
Consensus
46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 45.5¢Risks 45.50u
VS
AIFSNO 54.5¢Risks 54.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +54.50u · AIFS −54.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 23.8% · 2026-10-15T07:49:17+00:00AIFS Single: 23.8% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00AIFS Single: 23.8% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00AIFS Single: 23.8% · 2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00AIFS Single: 23.8% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-15T07:49:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.0% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.2% · 2026-10-15T07:49:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.2% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.2% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.2% · 2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.2% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00IFS HRES: 32.4% · 2026-10-15T07:49:17+00:00IFS HRES: 32.4% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00IFS HRES: 32.4% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00IFS HRES: 32.4% · 2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00IFS HRES: 32.4% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00ICON: 34.0% · 2026-10-15T07:49:17+00:00ICON: 34.0% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00ICON: 34.0% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00ICON: 34.0% · 2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00ICON: 34.0% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:0010-15 07:4910-15 09:2110-15 10:52
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:49:17+00:0023.8%55.0%67.2%32.4%34.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:0023.8%55.0%67.2%32.4%34.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:0023.8%55.0%67.2%32.4%34.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:0023.8%55.0%67.2%32.4%34.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:0023.8%55.0%67.2%32.4%34.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 267%77.9°F5.4°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble55%75.9°F3.2°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
National Blend55%76.0°F4.4°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
ICON34%71.4°F9.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS HRES32%72.6°F6.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
AIFS Single24%71.5°F5.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261022-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 76°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗